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KAVERI SEEDS COMPANY

With talk of poor monsoon i wasn't suprised to see promoter group of kaveri seeds company booking some profits.

Bulk Deals on :
Bulk deals for Kaveri Seed Company on both BSE & NSE for all transactions
Date Company Client Tran Qty Traded Price
09-Jul-2014 Kaveri Seed (NSE) THE GROWTH FUND OF AMERICA BUY 3207813 836.10
09-Jul-2014 Kaveri Seed (NSE) VANAJA DEVI GUNDAVARAM SELL 3162552 836.15
 Stock has since corrected 15% from top

Kaveri has already been a multibagger for its investors rising a 10 fold from 2011 to 2014.

Ashish Kacholia of LUCKY SECURITIES has already made a 10 bagger return from the stock from 2011.

We need to watch now whether the stock has made a top for this year.

attached charts




Disclosure have no positions in kaveri seeds as of now. would like to add post the earnings season.


elara on orient cement

Magnitude
In the past few weeks, prices of cement in South India have increased sharply. If prices were to remain high, then South-based firms would see a sharp improvement in earnings. Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN), which is the lowest cost producer in the southern region, is likely to regain its margin leadership in Q2FY15 when it would benefit from the full quarter impact of the recent price hike. Given that the existing plant (which has an inherited cost advantage due to proximity to raw materials sources and the market) is likely to generate a ROCE of 12% even at a replacement cost of INR 6,000/tonne, its valuation should command 1x replacement cost. As AP has sustained high cement prices for the past six months to 2 years, we conclude that these prices could sustain at the current levels for some more time.
Orient is also expanding capacity from 5 mn tonnes to 8 mn tonnes by Q1FY16. The new 3-million-tonne plant is coming upin the oversupply Gulbarga cluster and is likely to have a higher landed cost of fly ash and fuel. To address investor concerns regarding low profitability, we assume the plant will be unable to generate sufficient returns above its WAAC for the next five years. Hence, we assign 1x replacement cost of INR 6,000/tonne over the next five years where this plant’s ROCE would be equal to its WACC and discount the same value of WACC at 12% for the next five years. Based on these assumptions, valuation of new capacity would be at INR 3,405/tonne.
Triggers
Weighted average targets multiple works out to be at INR 4,937/tonne. The stock is currently trading at an EV/ tonne of INR 3,560/tonne on FY16 capacity
Watch the Diet
After valuing the company at a target multiple of INR 4,937/tonne, fair price under the blue sky scenario would be INR 147, implying upside potential of 58% from the current levels.

Nirmal bang on Steel Authority of India-

  Steel Authority of India- Institution Desk Management Meet Update- Likely Improvement Priced-in; Retain Sell: We had a meeting with the management of SAIL recently in order to get an update on its current activities. The company will enjoy the benefit of lower coking coal prices, which will be slightly offset by a minor drop in steel prices. SAIL is hopeful of improvement in demand driven by investment revival, which will help it to sell incremental volume arising out of expansion. The management indicated that there were certain non-recurring expenses in FY14, which led EBITDA to fall to a 10-year low of Rs3,457/tn. The management expects the performance to improve on the back of higher volume and lower coking coal as well as overheads costs. We have not revised our estimates at this point of time, as we have already factored in adequate improvement from FY14 onwards. SAIL currently trades at 12.1x/10.8x FY15E/ FY16E EV/EBITDA, respectively, higher than its past 12 years’ average of 6.3x. We have retained Sell rating with a TP of Rs72, which is 22% below the CMP.

SOURCE :NB
 

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