TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 09.02.09 -Visit www.Niftyviews.com

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Dear Friends,
The previous week belonged to the small ticker stocks. We had an odd spice tele, Orbit Corporation, Wwil moving more then 50% week on week. One may reason the movement of small cap stocks at this juncture but none will doubt the oversold stature of these stocks for the last six months. For me the movement in spice tele was a deadly combination of addiction to liquor and drugs. With less then 1% public holding (74.29 lakhs) the operators had a clear run with Intraday volumes exceeding the Free float by a 10X factor. The best part is that as per Idea management spice will be merged with Idea at 100:49 ratio decided at the time of acquisition. At yesterdays price the Fair value translates into 22 Rs per share for spice tele shares. I still believe that investors who wish to take exposure in Media Transmission Company should prefer Dish Tv to WWIL. Anyone who knows the dynamics of the business will agree with my outlook. Best strategy is to avoid the sector until we see Break even in the primary business.
On a weekly basis Dow closed up 3.5% and Nifty 1% down. Since last 1 month Nifty has moved in a small range of 170 odd points. I haven’t observed such a narrow trading range in last 1 year of the bear market. Market movements of last two months show the emergence of the painful phase of the bear market. We might see movement in select stocks but the broader market will be range bound. Moreover one more peculiar observation is that the movement in stocks outside the derivative space has been almost nil. Almost no trading interest is observed in the same. Going ahead we will have two main triggers namely the Interim Budget and the disclosure of pledge of shares U/s 8A by Listed companies. The revealed data shows that the best of the Indian companies had some of their stakes pledged with lenders. Utv Limited is one such case in point. Even after infusion of funds from Walt Disney the pledge of entire promoter holding does raise eyebrows. Keep a watch on 8A disclosure by the Tata group of companies.
In Nifty one should be bearish only below 2662 in Nifty. Above that one can opt for either of the trading strategy of Buying at dips or sell in Rally. Do note that each Bear phase and Bull market is unique. We can draw inferences from the previous phase but markets only know the outcome itself.

Happy trading

Nifty support- 2753,2662

Nifty resistance-2905,3029

Buy on dips and exit before Thursday to prevent yourself from pre Budget volatility.


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