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Dear Friends,
The manner in which Nifty crossed 4300 levels on Thursday proved that the rally has more steam then one originally thought. In the recent up move in Nifty, Bank Nifty has under performed Nifty. Except Sbi other bank stocks looks overbought and stretched in short term. It was banks that started this rally and any correction in any bank should be closely tracked. As of now no sell signals are generated in Banks.
The quality of the recent up move should clearly be questioned. If traders remember, three months back we had mentioned that most of the real estate stocks were having a market capitalization that was lower then the funds raised via the Ipo. With recent run up in the downtrodden sector this inequality seems to have ended. On a contrary I believe some of the real estate stocks have become overpriced now. Ivr prime management has been truthful. In a recent interview to Cnbc Tv18, Sudhir Reddy, CMD of Ivrcl said, “IVR Prime, the listed real estate arm of IVRCL, is in stocktaking mode. The company listed on the exchanges two years ago, and while it still remains a debt-free company, the management is looking to exit the business. It says that demand has been low and fund-raising options limited, and even its low-cost housing projects have not seen many takers.” I believe traders should take the money off the table in these downtrodden sectors before lower circuits become the order of the day.
Bharti Mtn deal will be positive for Bharti for long term is the broader message. At the same time one below the belt message is that the growth in Indian markets is coming to a standstill. We wont see exponential growth going ahead and existing players will have a tough time with new competitors launching services almost every month. One of the basic reasons why I don’t trust the telecos is that most of the Prepaid subscribe additions are with Lifetime validity and once the user shifts his loyalty to another network he is still counted as a client of the former along with the latter.
Small caps and Midcaps have now started showing excessive exuberance with most of the stocks having given a 100% return in a small time phase. I am highly cautious for fresh investments now as markets are overbought. Above 4509 next resistances for Nifty exists at 4789.80. Before that we might see some corrections and timing the same will be important. Do read the stock views on select large cap stocks at www.Niftyviews.com
NIFTY RESISTANCE 4509,4548
NIFTY SUPPORT 4302,4413
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