Nifty Basic EOD chart-CLICK TO ENLARGE.
Dear Friends,
The euphoric rise in the markets last week post the announcement of the results to the 15th Lok Sabha had two major impacts. One is a short-term impact of a bear squeeze (which is already taking place.) the latter is the long-term effect of a shallow market in terms of the liquidity. The reason why I am using the term shallow is that when Bears are squeezed to such an extent then one thing is for sure that we wont have enough buying support when the Index tanks due to any negative event.
I sincerely believe that having an upper circuit to a liquid index is not correct. Same views are for a lower circuit. Coming to the markets on a broader framework the pre election rally of 80% seems to reach the fagged end. I wont take fresh shorts here I would simply wait for the markets to fall at its own weight. I don’t belong to the camp, which believes that this is an embryo or a plant of a new Bull market. I would be 90% more comfortable on buying a 3-day closing above 4762 as of now. It is simply 10% above current levels. Below 3820 the short-term up trend will be over. The real action won’t occur in May expiry because of short squeeze the action now shifts to June series. Technically Bull market is defined as New Highs done by the markets. All other definition for Bull market is fake and self created by investment people.
Take a small self-analysis test in IPL 1 Royal challengers and Deccan charges were Bottom two teams. This year one of them will be the winner of IPL-2. This kind of dramatic turnaround is possible only in a 20-20 match. In case you believe stock markets are 20-20 stuff then you might be correct in your analysis of a Bull market. I don’t belong to the bullish camp yet.
In February I had mentioned in the weekly note about the correlation between Oil-nymex contracts and Reliance industry. It was also mentioned that a Breakout of Ril above 14XX would be a major move. Similarly I have noticed Gold outperforming in last few weeks as compared to Dow Jones. I have just started my analysis on Gold-bees but I have a feeling it will be one of the best performers in next three years. At present I am working on global supply and demand of Gold. Will come out with concrete numbers in next few weeks. I have attached two simple charts on Gold and nifty. Kindly click to enlarge.
Supports-4155,3952.
Resistance 4298,4419
Gold Basic
TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 46400/= IN 1 LOT
REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/
TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 13250/= IN 1 LOT (265POINTS CAPTURED IN 1 LOT)
REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/
TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 14738/= IN 1 LOT
REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/
TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 21000/=
REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/
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HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY
VINAYAK
TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS
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