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Dear Friends,
Week on week Nifty closed up 1.38%. Had it not been for Friday markets might have witnessed a negative week on week closing? The coming week will be crucial as this if for the first time that the Litmus test will be conducted on the recent upmove. For those who don’t know a litmus paper is used as a pH indicator (one of the oldest), used to test materials for acidity. Blue litmus paper turns red under acidic conditions and red litmus paper turns blue under basic (i.e. alkaline) conditions. In our observation we will take alkaline as Bullish and acidic as Bearish. It would be good to observe how markets move from here. If it’s a bear market rally then under any circumstances 4798 wont be crossed in Nifty. If it’s a genuine rally then 4798 needs to cross and 4010 needs to hold on downside.
Last week witnessed two major economic outcomes. One was the consolidated result of Tata Motors and Tata Steel and the other was the first dividend payout by Ifci in ten years. I believe one of the major reasons for latter’s turnaround was the stake sale in NSE. The coming days will be interesting as far as Ifci is concerned. At the same time it seems illogical as who will be interested in buying this company at a valuation per share of more then 60. At 60 its market cap is a little over 45 billion rupees. Its dividend yield at cmp is 1.5%, which is less then that of Icici bank and Sbi. I have posted a note on the google group of Team stockresearchers on the window dressing of Tata Steel account. Last financial year the company took advantage of the gains in Corus Employee benefit funds to the tune of 5906.8 crs. This year there was an actuarial loss of 5496 crs, which wasn’t accounted in the P&L account but was adjusted with general reserve. Tata Motors after the launch of Nano become a three-bagger. The company has posted a loss after 8 years. I wonder why Tata Steel India paid a dividend of 16 rs per share when the actual consolidated accounts adjusting the actuarial loss to P&L along with Forex loss would have resulted in a negative Eps. One of the reasons might be that Tatas have to reduce the leverage in there own holding company. Due to inherent reasons Tata steel standalone operations will always be profitable. The bigger problems I believe are now in groups global operations, as leverage will start to hurt them.
Keep a watch on Monsoons movement. I would request readers to take a printout of this week weekly note and paste the same in their work place. Unless it rains in next 30 days and Monsoon is declared normal we would see one of the worst events that modern India has ever seen. As I write this note the state of Manipur in Northeast India has already declared itself as a drought hit state by the state government. We are now a 1.18 billion people country. Unless there is a food security for its masses no amount of excel sheet calculations and infrastructure spending will help the Gdp numbers. In rural India the major monetary income is still based on agriculture and not NREGS. Watch for state run banks if get the bad news flow on Monsoons. Also keep a watch on Fii sell figures. Off late they have started showing an uptick again.We have initiated coverage on a stock for Long term investment this week. Details of the stock have been mailed to weekly clients. The company is a subsidiary of World largest ***** maker. The Indian parent is a conglomerate. Current market cap of the recently covered stock is 60 crore. Company is trading at a 1.5X FY09EBITDA level and a PE ratio of 5X. Company has recently completed its 170 crs expansion plan in Haridwar. If things work out as expected it might pay a dividend of 10 rs per share in FY11.
NIFTY SUPPORT:-4200,4245
Nifty resistance :-4405,4470
TSR June 22- 26th weekly report
SERIES REPORT.
TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS
68006
PROFIT SO FAR THIS MONTH 216662 = IN 1 LOT
REFER
http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/
TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS 16750 /= IN 1 LOT(335 POINTS CAPTURED IN 1 LOT)
CAPTURED THIS MONTH 65750
REFER
http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/
TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS
=24350
PROFITS THIS MONTH 40622 /= IN 1 LOT
REFER
http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/
12 calls hits targets 0 hits sl and 3 booked at costs in
TSR intra cash calls this week
More then 86% accuracy in may series in Intraday calls.Check day by day sheet at http://www.smscalls.blogspot.com/ .
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VINAYAK
TEAM STOCKRESEARCHERS
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