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Dear friends,
Mark Twain once famously said “ October is a dangerous month to invest in equities, the other dangerous months are January, march, February, April, may June, July, august, September, November and December. The great Indian Telecom story is slowing down. For people who have ears to the ground slowly and steadily Bharti Airtel has been increasing its tariff charges to maintain profitability amid low subscriber additions by listed telcos. There has been a 33.33% hike in last three months in select telecom circles on Airtel to Airtel connectivity charges. There is a high probability that the competition from the new entrants would reduce the OPM of almost all the TELCOS.
Reliance is reported to be keen on acquiring LyondellBasell, reports CNBC-TV18 quoting sources. It would be interesting to see how the company would be able to manage a large leveraged buyout after the Crisis. At any given point of time the company would be able to perform far better then a High priced Buyout of a Novelis, corus, Laxon and JLR. The recent treasury sale news is nothing new for people who have been observing the operations of the Ambani clan. Almost every year in the 1980,s and the 1990,s the Ambanis had raised funds from the public. The treasury stock sale can be one such instrument.
Coming back to the markets for people who are comparing the 2009 market recovery to the 2003 Bull Run. I have an important point to note. The Pe ratio of the market at the index level of 1885 on 8th march 2004 was 22.05. P/B =3.72 and dividend yield was 1.36%. ON Fridays closing Nifty Pe ratio was 22.41, P/B was 3.91 and dividend yield was a meager 1.02%. The markets saw an earnings expansion in 2003-2007. Unless we see a 22% growth in earnings starting this quarter the markets under all probabilities would not continue making newer highs. Kindly note the bottomline, India Inc has to perform else this markets will perish.
NIFTY SUPPORT:-4920,4885
Nifty resistance :-5017,5066
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