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Dear Friends,

After the introduction of the free float method in Nifty, the financial segment of the markets has challenged the leadership of the energy segment. In last one year with the broader index generating a return of more then 100%. Its time traders take a thorough look at each segment of the benchmark index. Financials (mostly banks) is a cyclical industry on a macro front. Even with a high economic growth and a 20%+ credit growth I believe most of the Indian Banks suffer a syndrome which I call P.S.S. (Public Sector Syndrome.) Thankfully due to free float of Nifty, the weightage of Pnb and Sbi is lowest among the financials. The remaining three out of four large financials have already announced additional funding for shoring up their Tier1 and Tier 2 capital base. Icici Bank is perhaps the only one that has not announced any additional share issues as of now. Perhaps Icici bank will try and raise funds via listing its subsidiaries. Upside will be capped in remaining private sector banks until and unless the equity dilution starts getting EPS accretive.

The way index is being managed is reminiscent of the last Bull Run. Cement,Oil&Gas,Energy,Banks, Pharma,IT,Metals are being routinely rotated to make way for index management. The only silver lining for bears is the earnings season ahead. With the recent upmove in basic metals the raw material cushion, which was enjoyed by most listed companies wont, be identical. Do remember the markets know everything and everything will get discounted before the news is out.

Oil India is expected to be listed on October 1. While so many analysts have pointed to the fact that Oil India is not cheap and the company has priced the issue aggressively. Traders should note two basic facts ONGC cash and cash equivalents per share is less then 100 rs per share. At the same time OIL after its Ipo will have a cash and cash equivalent of approx 400 rs per share. This cash equivalent will give the remaining business a pe ratio of less then 7X, which is cheap for any commodity. Moreover the improved Capex would provide escalated profits going ahead. Do remember what Peter Lynch said for buying shares in a public offering by governments,” Whatever the queen sells, Buy It.” I would like to add, whatever the queen sells buy it unless it is BSNL! :o

NIFTY SUPPORT:-4904,4808

Nifty resistance :-5041,4988

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TSR SEPTEMBER SERIES REPORT.

PROFIT 82945 = IN 1 LOT

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TSR INTRA NIFTY

PROFITS 32840 (688 POINTS IN 1 LOT)

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TSR OPTIONS PLAN

PROFITS 38450

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