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Dear Friends,

The markets last week reacted to what I call the I.B.U effect. Three stocks covered in last weeks newsletter stole the limelight last week were Infosys Bharti and Unitech. Week on week markets closed down 2.7%. The reason why I avoided Reliance was that it was at best market performer. It makes me surprised how an accounting exercise like Bonus shares can be a Diwali Bonus for Ril shareholders. Reliance turnover in value terms is still in Top 10 in Nifty Index. Moreover the only party that stands benefited is the taxman on the issue of new shares with stamp duty benefits.

Infosys is trading at four quarters TTM Pe of 19.79. Infosys has projected a net profit growth of 4.8% to 4.4%. At best the stock should trade at 16X earnings. For a 5% grower to trade at 20X Forward pe is expensive for me even at current valuations. Last week after the Bharti-Mtn deal when the whole media was upbeat about the telecom sector. I had pointed out “Traders who believed that Bharti will outperform the markets should go and study the subscriber additions and the ARPU of existing telecom operators. I strongly believe that the telecom sector would slowly move towards valuation parameters of power utility.” In last week’s edition. It doesn’t come as a surprise for me that by Friday the markets had adjusted themselves to the new fundamentals of a once sunrise industry. Going ahead as growth fizzles out the stocks will start adjusting to the 8X-12X price band. The stock price movement reflects that over the long term the price is bound to adjust with the fundamentals of the stock and the deviation between the fundamentals and the stock price is zero.

One more distinct observation made last week was that the market would refuse to fall unless it frustrates the last standing bear to the farthest incident. Do note that I personally believe that on an index front we might remain range bound till the liquidity tap fastens or restricts itself going further. Suzlon will be an interesting stock going ahead. Recently company raised 20 mln$ from the issuance of Gdr and Fccb. The company has been going through a rough patch for some time. I fail to understand the logic of the promoters in selling there stake and bring funds raised via stake sell as soft loan for the company. In case the company needed funds then the company could have easily raised funds via equity dilution the way Unitech did. Suzlon still has a debt book of more then 3 billion$. Moreover the appreciating rupee will start hitting the exporter going forward. Tough time ahead for Tulsi Tanti.

We would release a list of five stocks for Long term portfolio Buy in any markets on the eve of Muharat trading.The list would be made available to Weekly clients. Some stock ideas will also be uploaded at www.Niftyviews.com .Do check in.

NIFTY SUPPORT:-4931,4771

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TSR SEPTEMBER SERIES REPORT.

PROFIT 82945 = IN 1 LOT

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TSR INTRA NIFTY

PROFITS 32840 (688 POINTS IN 1 LOT)

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TSR OPTIONS PLAN

PROFITS 38450

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