TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 01.06.09 -Visit www.Niftyviews.com Charts attached

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Nifty Eod Charts.Click to enlarge..


Dear Friends,
The manner in which Nifty crossed 4300 levels on Thursday proved that the rally has more steam then one originally thought. In the recent up move in Nifty, Bank Nifty has under performed Nifty. Except Sbi other bank stocks looks overbought and stretched in short term. It was banks that started this rally and any correction in any bank should be closely tracked. As of now no sell signals are generated in Banks.

The quality of the recent up move should clearly be questioned. If traders remember, three months back we had mentioned that most of the real estate stocks were having a market capitalization that was lower then the funds raised via the Ipo. With recent run up in the downtrodden sector this inequality seems to have ended. On a contrary I believe some of the real estate stocks have become overpriced now. Ivr prime management has been truthful. In a recent interview to Cnbc Tv18, Sudhir Reddy, CMD of Ivrcl said, “IVR Prime, the listed real estate arm of IVRCL, is in stocktaking mode. The company listed on the exchanges two years ago, and while it still remains a debt-free company, the management is looking to exit the business. It says that demand has been low and fund-raising options limited, and even its low-cost housing projects have not seen many takers.” I believe traders should take the money off the table in these downtrodden sectors before lower circuits become the order of the day.
Bharti Mtn deal will be positive for Bharti for long term is the broader message. At the same time one below the belt message is that the growth in Indian markets is coming to a standstill. We wont see exponential growth going ahead and existing players will have a tough time with new competitors launching services almost every month. One of the basic reasons why I don’t trust the telecos is that most of the Prepaid subscribe additions are with Lifetime validity and once the user shifts his loyalty to another network he is still counted as a client of the former along with the latter.

Small caps and Midcaps have now started showing excessive exuberance with most of the stocks having given a 100% return in a small time phase. I am highly cautious for fresh investments now as markets are overbought. Above 4509 next resistances for Nifty exists at 4789.80. Before that we might see some corrections and timing the same will be important. Do read the stock views on select large cap stocks at www.Niftyviews.com

NIFTY RESISTANCE 4509,4548

NIFTY SUPPORT 4302,4413

TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS 2,60,000/ IN 1 LOT

REFER

http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/

TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS 51750 /= IN 1 LOT (1030 POINTS CAPTURED IN 1 LOT)

REFER

http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/

TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS 33500 /= IN 1 LOT

REFER

http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/


TSR POSITIONAL SWING CALLS PROFITS 225000/=
REFER

http://owlcalls.blogspot.com/

TSR HNI PACK PROFITS =5,60,000

More then 85% accuracy in may series in Intraday calls.Check day by day sheet at http://www.smscalls.blogspot.com/ .

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TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 25.05.09 -Visit www.Niftyviews.com Charts attached

Nifty Basic EOD chart-CLICK TO ENLARGE.



Dear Friends,

The euphoric rise in the markets last week post the announcement of the results to the 15th Lok Sabha had two major impacts. One is a short-term impact of a bear squeeze (which is already taking place.) the latter is the long-term effect of a shallow market in terms of the liquidity. The reason why I am using the term shallow is that when Bears are squeezed to such an extent then one thing is for sure that we wont have enough buying support when the Index tanks due to any negative event.

I sincerely believe that having an upper circuit to a liquid index is not correct. Same views are for a lower circuit. Coming to the markets on a broader framework the pre election rally of 80% seems to reach the fagged end. I wont take fresh shorts here I would simply wait for the markets to fall at its own weight. I don’t belong to the camp, which believes that this is an embryo or a plant of a new Bull market. I would be 90% more comfortable on buying a 3-day closing above 4762 as of now. It is simply 10% above current levels. Below 3820 the short-term up trend will be over. The real action won’t occur in May expiry because of short squeeze the action now shifts to June series. Technically Bull market is defined as New Highs done by the markets. All other definition for Bull market is fake and self created by investment people.

Take a small self-analysis test in IPL 1 Royal challengers and Deccan charges were Bottom two teams. This year one of them will be the winner of IPL-2. This kind of dramatic turnaround is possible only in a 20-20 match. In case you believe stock markets are 20-20 stuff then you might be correct in your analysis of a Bull market. I don’t belong to the bullish camp yet.

In February I had mentioned in the weekly note about the correlation between Oil-nymex contracts and Reliance industry. It was also mentioned that a Breakout of Ril above 14XX would be a major move. Similarly I have noticed Gold outperforming in last few weeks as compared to Dow Jones. I have just started my analysis on Gold-bees but I have a feeling it will be one of the best performers in next three years. At present I am working on global supply and demand of Gold. Will come out with concrete numbers in next few weeks. I have attached two simple charts on Gold and nifty. Kindly click to enlarge.

Supports-4155,3952.

Resistance 4298,4419

Gold Basic




TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 46400/= IN 1 LOT



REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/



TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 13250/= IN 1 LOT (265POINTS CAPTURED IN 1 LOT)



REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/


TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 14738/= IN 1 LOT



REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/



TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 21000/=



REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/



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TSR MID WEEK VIEWS UPDATED FOR 19.05.09-Visit www.Niftyviews.com

Above 4298 next resistance for Nifty is at 4758 odd levels. Market was furious Today although vols were missing.


I believe we have two kind of visible fools as of now. First category is of people who bought puts( and Not straddles) in the beginning of the month and exited before the event. The second who are holding the same since the beginning of the session on the recommendations of their brokers and are still holding the same expecting a Black day.... The first category is of people who are self acclaimed fools and who will boast of the timing in their exits. The reason i call the category of people as fools is that exiting options a month before the event whose outcome is unknown and exiting before the event is nothing but foolishness.


The premium before the event was abnormal I had mentioned the same before but believe me in my wildest thought i didnt expect this upmove.This is unprecedented and charts are not giving me any leadaway other then resistance level of 4758. Its more then 350 points then todays close. One needs to watch the flushout of bears from the trading system.As of now the news not reported in the mainstream media is the margin pressure in brokerage firms due to the unprecedented rise in the markets.




TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 93815/= IN 1 LOT



REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/



TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 11150/= IN 1 LOT (223POINTS CAPTURED)



REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/


TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST 10 DAYS3950 /= IN 1 LOT



REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/



TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 35000/= IN 1 LOT



REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/



Be a TSR premium delivery client for as low as 650 per month on annual subscriptions

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TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 18.05.09-Visit www.Niftyviews.com

Dear Friends,

The clear mandate of the UPA government might have two precise outcomes as far as the stock market is concerned. The first being that the Out of the Money put premium will be almost equivalent to the Time value of the options and the latter being the decrease in the price paid as premium for Option contracts due to the decrease in the Implied volatility of the markets.

We had mentioned on the weekly Nifty note on 17th of November 2008 about the Buy Trade being generated in the Tea Sector.Click here. In the same context on 1st of January had shared a report on Gillander Arbuthnot. Traders can book out their costs in the Tea sector on Monday. We have recommended TSR premium clients to book 66% of their holding in Gillander thus making the residual holding free of cost. With the clear mandate to UPA murmurs of the next stimulus package are already doing rounds. As of now a gap up is a certainty the magnitude is debatable. What is remarkable is the turnaround of retail brokerages from a prediction of a black Monday to a trading call of an Upper circuit the turnaround is remarkable. For me I followed the golden advise of Jesse Livermore and didn’t trust any inside Information J
Pension sector and Banking sector reforms will be an event worth watching for in coming days. Sugar, Media and Tea sector have shown a decent run up and traders should lock profits in these sectors. On a broader framework on a closing basis Nifty has a resistance at 3822.If On Monday we see a closing above the same then 4298 is the next resistance zone. Interesting times ahead. Above 3822 Bears will be panicky.

WEEKLY SUPPORTS :3672,3741

WEEKLY RESISTANCE :3951,4091

TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 93815/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/

TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 11150/= IN 1 LOT (223POINTS CAPTURED)

REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/

TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST 10 DAYS3950 /= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/

TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 35000/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/

Be a TSR premium delivery client for as low as 650 per month on annual subscriptions

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Mid week review -TSR-www.niftyviews.com Updated on 14.05.09

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Dear Friends,
So many exit polls predicting so many kind of results. we at TSR wont waste our time in predicting events whose outcome will be known in a matter of two days.

Dow is down 170 odd points when i am writing this note will be interesting to see if market rewards all the put holders. As for the outcome of the exit polls. As my Guru Jesse Livermore says," Beware of Inside Information...................

.........................All Inside Information."

Eat light and trade light is the mantra from me as of now.

TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 75000/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/

TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 14500/= IN 1 LOT (299 POINTS CAPTURED)

REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/

TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST 10 DAYS 8350/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/

TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 46000/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/

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TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 11.05.09-Visit www.Niftyviews.com

Dear Friends,
Gillander Arbuthnot one of the TSR researched stock reached 72.50 odd levels on Friday. It is again a coincident that till date no other firm has published a research report on Gillander Arbuthnot and co.. On 3rd December 2008,TSR had published its report on Gillander (price –48.75) I am uploading a copy of the report in premium reports section at www.Niftyviews.com do note that the company should report a EPBDT of 40crs in FY09. Eps should be in range of 14-15 odd levels and at cmp Pe ratio is 7X Fy08e. The reason why I expect eps to rise to 14-15 odd levels is the improved performance in the Tea and the Engineering segments. Micco one of its engineering subsidiaries has been performing well with an order backlog of over 500crs.Company has followed a consistent dividend policy of 40% of net profits. Last year dividend was Rs4.00 per share which can rise to 5.50 this year. One of the reasons why the analyst community has not tracked the company might be that it was listed in Calcutta Stock exchange and it was only in 2006 that it got listed in BSE via a merger with GIS Cotton Mills.

Will advise people to book part profit at cmp (60% of investments) and reenter using trading dips. At the same time people who bought at 48-50 levels can hold the stock for long term, as dividend yield is attractive.
Coming to the markets historically we have seen Implied Volatility increasing near the results season of the elections. I personally believe that one of the reasons for high option values might be the high IV,s. The way people are accumulating put option in Index and Stock I personally feel that the knee jerk reaction to the election results might not be witnessed. Imagine a situation where everyone knows that the volatility will increase post 16th of May. What in case the market or the “Informed Markets men” know something more. Interesting times ahead. Stay tuned. Do note from now on weekly mailers will have nifty levels along with premium weekly calls performance. We will have a mid week note anytime during the week.Do note the week ahead will be a Volatile week and it sometime pays to stay away from stock markets.


WEEKLY SUPPORTS :3517,3436

WEEKLY RESISTANCE :3705,3798

TSR INTRA FUTS PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 75000/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.future-friend.blogspot.com/

TSR INTRA NIFTY PROFITS IN LAST WEEK 14500/= IN 1 LOT (299 POINTS CAPTURED)

REFER http://www.tsrnifty.blogspot.com/

TSR OPTIONS PLAN PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST 10 DAYS 8350/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://www.tsroption.blogspot.com/

TSR WEEKLY CALLS PROFITS CAPTURED IN LAST WEEK 46000/= IN 1 LOT

REFER http://premiumcalls.blogspot.com/

Be a TSR premium delivery client for as low as 650 per month on annual subscriptions

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TSR NIFTYVIEWS - Mid week Update 07.05.09-Visit www.Niftyviews.com .

Dear Friends,

Before I start some changes await you at www.Niftyviews.com. Be online in market hours to note the same.
The Five days 16th April 23rd April 30th April 7th May 13th May are the dates when the votes will be cast for the five phased election to the Indian Parliament. The reason why I have mentioned the same in my mid week review is that tomorrow is 7th of May and we have the fourth phase of elections.
On 15th April Nifty saw an up move. On 16th of April Nifty saw an equivalent down move. Both were of a magnitude of 3%. On 22nd of April Nifty saw a downmove of 1%. On the 23rd of April Nifty saw an Upmove of approx 3%. On 29th of April Nifty saw an upmove of 3%. Market was closed on 30th of April due to elections. When it reopened on 4th of May it went up by 5%. Today Nifty was down by approx 1%.It will be interesting to see whether market moves by 3% up or down tomorrow or the market has something different in store for us.
On the political front I believe the change of the guard at the center is now a formality. The recent statements of Rahul Gandhi vis a vis the Left front simply means that the Grand old party of the Indian politics has conceded defeat. What else will prompt the general secretary to reach left and Nitish kumar before elections in Bihar and Bengal? I had presented in my last post the movement of the markets in 2004 general elections. I received queries from people asking why I have asked people to remain with light positions. My only reply is that light positions are advised both on Long and Short positions. Ask people who had bought may puts early in the series and are now seeing losses of approx 75% of base value. Better luck next time.
Coming to Nifty I expect weakness near 3820 odd level. This level will retrace the entire nifty downmove from January 8 th 2008 to October 2008. This is a level to watch for in coming days.

Will Simply post resistance and support levels over the weekend with important events for the week ahead.

WEEKLY CALL UPDATES:
--

BUY CALL ON APIL GIVES PROFITS OF Rs. 33..LOT SIZE 1200

REC Hits Target but didn't come to the Buying range missed entry by a buck 104 low and 113 hit

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TSR NIFTY UPDATES- Week beginning 04.05.09-Visit www.Niftyviews.com .

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Dear Friends,
As mentioned last week in the weekly note I would restrict the TSR weekly mailer to technical levels and important events for the week ahead. Moreover I will analyze technical levels for certain stocks for short term at http://stockrumours.blogspot.com/ The above mentioned blog will also be updated daily with technical levels for intraday. In case you need our entire analysis you can join the TSR delivery calls. Coming to the markets week on week Nifty closed 8 points down in the truncated week. I personally believe that the next fortnight will be crucial for the markets. Historically the month of May has been a volatile month in the Indian context. At the same time traders should note that the markets would react to a fractured verdict from the general elections. Two possibilities are probable in the above context. The former there is a stable coalition government at the center and the latter being an unstable Non progressive Government which includes the Left. Markets are believed to have a memory, which is in short term in nature. On April 23rd Nifty traded at a level of 1912. In response to NDA’s defeat and speeches by Left oriented leaders Nifty made a low of 1292 on the day when the verdict was out. Incidentally in 2009 the verdict will be out on 16th of May. It is to be seen how the markets react to the Indian political verdict.
I will advise traders to be trading with fewer positions for the month of May. One more advice will be to rigorously follow sl and target levels. Traders should also note that just before the elections one should book profits in media companies along with AUTO companies. After the election outcome the focus of the market will shift back to the economic scenario. Our current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has promised to bring back the economy on its growth path back in hundred days. I believe the above statement should be quoted as a political statement. At present what we need is a policy that is similar to Kennedy series of tax cuts. It should have multiplier effects with limited leakages in the form of imports. At the same time the policy should be outward looking in nature.

WEEKLY SUPPORTS :3290,3397

WEEKLY RESISTANCE :3541,3594

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