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November 11, 2014

Is Venus remedies a sinking ship

Venus remedies came out with an announcement of Swiss approval for the Market Authorization for Meropenem from SWITZERLAND


Post the announcement and the flash in all news hungry stock channels the stock spurted.At the end of the day stock closed up 1% down 4% from its intraday high.

Recently the company has been in news for its rating being downgraded by CRISIL to D 
 technically means a potential default.

Venus had in past defaulted on its FCCB payments and then did Out of court settlements with the FCCB owners

Today when the company posted a rosy picture to all the traders in the market someone was silently selling

 The block deal in nse showed who was selling the stock.It was one of the promoters who sold the stock in open market after sending a positive media announcement.When the promoter wants to jump the ship I rest my case.

 11/11/2014 VENUSREM      Venus Remedies Limited     PAWAN      CHAUDHARY  SELL 72000  263.87   


November 7, 2014

Oops! Did FDA Mistakenly Give Ranbaxy Approval to Sell Generic Nexium? ....What am i reading...

Will an FDA error mean that U.S. consumers will have to wait still longer to buy a generic version of the widely used Nexium heartburn pill?
Ranbaxy, you may recall, was the first generic drug maker to win the right to market a copycat version in the U.S., which would have allowed the company to do so for six months without any competition. The arrangement is designed to reward patent challenges to brand-name drugs and lower health-care costs.
But there has been a snag. The FDA banned imports of Ranbaxy products from four different facilities in India due to a raft of regulatory violations. And until manufacturing begins, the six-month market exclusivity remains in place, which means Ranbaxy rivals cannot make their own generic versions.
Last month, however, Ranbaxy executives confidently stated that they expected to be able to proceed with plans to sell generic versions of Nexium, which is marketed by AstraZeneca, and the Valcyte antiviral sold by Roche. Now, though, the FDA has rescinded the tentative approval, although the marketing applications remains under consideration, according to an agency spokeswoman.
What happened? The spokeswoman was unable to provide an immediate explanation, but the drug maker issued a statement saying the FDA decision was made “in error because of the compliance status of the facilities” mentioned in Ranbaxy marketing applications. Although Ranbaxy maintained there were no “data integrity issues,” the drug maker did not offer any further explanation.
We asked a Ranbaxy spokesman for comment and will update you accordingly. [UPDATE: A spokeswoman for Ranbaxy sent us a note saying the drug maker "is disappointed with this development and is actively evaluating all available options to preserve its rights."]
[ANOTHER UPDATE: An FDA spokeswoman says "the FDA is prohibited by law from disclosing information about an unapproved application. However, she adds that applications for selling Valcyte were approved for Endo Laboratories and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories this week."]
The turnabout means that the FDA is likely to face continued pressure over the ongoing delay in the availability of generic Nexium. The reason is simple: consumers are forced to spend more for the brand-name drug and this has riled some politicians.
Two months ago, for instance, Connecticut Attorney General George Jepsen complained about this in a letter to the agency. He calculated that U.S. consumers spend $16.4 million per day, on average, on Nexium and noted that generics typically sell for 20% or less than a brand-name drug within the first year on the market.
He also pointed out that a consent decree that Ranbaxy signed with the FDA in early 2012 set a period of up to three years – through September 2014 – for the drug maker to correct its manufacturing problems. If requirements are not met, Ranbaxy agreed to relinquish exclusivity no later than Sept. 30. A citizen’s petition filed last May by a law firm – on behalf of an unnamed generic drug maker – made the same points.
Perhaps, the alleged error that Ranbaxy cites is an acknowledgement by the FDA hat the agency is now considering whether to allow other generic drug makers to sell Nexium and Valcyte. We also asked the FDA about this stipulation and the status of the consent decree requirements and will pass along any response.
Last July, by the way, Ranbaxy did receive FDA approval to make and sell a generic version of the Diovan heart drug, which was also caught up in the consent decree. In this instance, the drug is being made by a facility in New Jersey, which is the only Ranbaxy plant that is allowed to make drugs for the U.S. market.

November 5, 2014

India infoline result updates

Greaves Cotton (Q2 FY15) – BUY
CMP Rs140, Target Rs232, Upside 65.7%
- Revenues at Rs4.4bn lower by 1.5% yoy; higher than our estimates, Robust growth in three-wheeler engine sales was offset by weakness seen in other segments
- OPM at 12.7% was higher by 149bps yoy and 166bps qoq, expansion was driven by better product mix and cost cutting initiatives implemented
- PAT was at Rs273mn as compared to a loss of Rs80mn in Q2 FY14 marred by Rs148mn exceptional item related to infrastructure equipment business exit
- Maintain our rating to BUY with a 2-year price target of Rs232
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Tata Communications (Q2 FY15) – BUY
CMP Rs412, Target Rs475, Upside 16.6%
- Revenues miss estimate but margins ahead of expectation; PAT beat aided by interest income on tax refund
- Strength in data revenues offset voice weakness while data margins reclaim 20% threshold
- Expect data to gain further prominence which would mitigate revenue volatility and provide margin support; raise core business EV/EBIDTA multiple to 6.5x on FY16 EBIDTA and retain BUY with revised 9-12 SOTP target of Rs475
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

KEC International Ltd (Q2 FY15) – BUY
CMP Rs102, Target Rs132, Upside 29.4%
- KEC managed to report 22.2% yoy growth in topline led by strong execution in the T&D space
- The outperformance was restricted by subdued performance in SAE business
- Margins contracted 73bps yoy and 35bps qoq due to operating loss at SAE and higher raw material/sales ratio
- Order inflow at Rs11bn was lower than estimate; the management has indicated that it is L1 in orders worth Rs20bn
- Bottomline impacted by high interest costs (+37.9% qoq) and lower margins
- Net Working capital days continued to increase on a sequential basis due to lower customer advances and increase in inventory levels at SAE
- Management remained confident of delivering margins close to 7% in FY15 and 100bps expansion in FY16
- We have lowered our FY15 and FY16 estimates to account for weak H1 FY15 and on expectations of a slower decline in working capital
- Maintain Buy on the stock with a revised price target of Rs132
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

October 25, 2014

Pitfalls of a tracking portfolio

Mohnish Pabrai is a world renowned Indian investor philanthropist and businessman.He is also known as the person who purchase a 650000 dollar lucnh with his Guru WARREN BUFFETT.

He follow the tracker investment method werein people imitate successful investors and just imitate their holdings to there own portfolios.

Here is more about him


People who have imitated Warren buffett of late have not had the best of there investment career going in for them.here is why.

It's not been a good time for Warren Buffett wannabes.
Sharp drops in many of the stocks owned by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb.N 139.4 0.72 0.52%) in recent weeks hit the sprawling conglomerate's equity portfolio hard. The loss on seven of those holdings alone totals more than $5 billion US provided Berkshire's stakes have remained the same since June 30, the last date for which they were disclosed.
In particular, Berkshire's been stung by large holdings in IBM and long-time Buffett favorite Coca-Cola (KO.N 41.03 0.17 0.42%), both of which tumbled after disappointing third-quarter results. His penchant for energy stocks hasn't helped either, given the damage done to the prices of energy assets by the slumping global oil price.
For the world's third richest man, unrealized losses of a few billion dollars aren't necessarily anything to cry about.
Buffett's ability to sit tight and ride out short-term market gyrations has been one of the keys to his success as a long-term investor. And unlike, say, mutual fund managers, he doesn't have to worry about redemptions forcing him to sell stock.
But for others - fund managers, smaller institutions, even retail investors - who often try to follow in Buffett's footsteps, the losses could be harder to get over.
Berkshire Hathaway did not respond to requests for comment.
With 400 million shares of Coke on June 30, Berkshire is the company's largest shareholder - and Buffett is perhaps the world's most famous Cherry Coke fan.
"I love Coke, I love the management," he said in a television interview in April, as the company faced a controversy over an executive compensation plan.
Coke shares plunged 6 percent on Oct. 21 after it said that quarterly profit slumped. The shares are down 4.1 percent since June 30 for a possible paper loss to Berkshire of $696 million.
Similarly, IBM - of which Berkshire held about 70 million shares on June 30 - is down about 11 percent since the end of the second quarter, with much of that decline occurring after it ditched its 2015 operating earnings target this week. Since June 30, IBM's slump may has cost Berkshire nearly $1.3 billion on paper.
Short-seller Doug Kass has repeatedly pointed to both of those companies as weak spots in Berkshire's portfolio.
Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management in Palm Beach, Florida, was named Buffett's "credentialed bear" for the 2013 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting. To spice up proceedings at the gathering, which is attended by thousands of Berkshire shareholders, Buffett got Kass to present the bear case against the conglomerate, which owns dozens of businesses selling everything from ice cream to insurance.
"Very few people have the sort of pain threshold and long-term time frame and risk appetite that Warren Buffett has," Kass said. "His risk profile is different than a mere mortal."
Among the other stocks that were in Berkshire's portfolio at June 30 that have dropped significantly are banking group Wells Fargo, credit card group American Express, energy giant Exxon Mobil, Canadian oil producer Suncor Energy and automaker General Motors.
Exxon often sees its fate tied to the price of oil. With crude down about 18 percent so far this year, Buffett's 41 million shares of Exxon at June 30 would be worth almost $311 million less now.
Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway said that it had sold off some of its stake in troubled British grocer Tesco, taking it to below 3 percent from around 3.96 percent of Tesco's shares in May.
Those shares are off 45 percent this year in the wake of its worsening performance, exacerbated by an accounting scandal. Buffett himself called that investment a "huge mistake."
Because Berkshire Hathaway owns stock in dozens of companies, several of its holdings are performing better. Retail behemoth Wal-Mart, for example, is up 1.3 percent since the end of the second quarter. And consumer products maker Procter & Gamble is up 7.2 percent from June 30 to Oct. 22.
For all its substantial portfolio holdings, the cornerstone of Berkshire Hathaway's earnings comes from the dozens of businesses it controls, including insurance company Geico and railroad BNSF. Those companies and others helped bring Berkshire's profit last year to a record $19.48 billion.
Nor have investors punished Berkshire Hathaway's own stock for the recent market gyrations. The class A shares of the conglomerate are up 16 percent this year, and up 8.75 percent since the second quarter.
That handily beats the S&P 500's tepid 4.3 percent gain so far this year.
Last year, for the first time since Buffett took control of Berkshire in 1965, the company's five-year gain in book value per share underperformed the S&P 500's five-year rise, including dividends but before tax.
But Buffett has often said that Berkshire Hathaway will do best against the index in lackluster or even down markets. In recent years, stocks have been surging.
And Buffett's preferred holding time of forever is well known, with the so-called Oracle of Omaha an advocate of buy-and-hold strategies for everyone from himself through Mom-and-Pop retail investors.
Indeed, Buffett himself has often praised falling markets as buying opportunities.
"Tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values," he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders this year.
"A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy."


October 23, 2014

Unilever announced its q3 earnings

  • Unilever (NYSE:UL): Q3 Revenue of €12.2B (-2.0% Y/Y).
  • Underlying sales growth +2.1%; Price +1.8%; Volume +0.3%.
  • Shares -1.6% PM.
  • Press Release


Why i dislike Public sector stocks

My dislike for public sector stocks is well known.

I know of bank clerks who make 45000 rs every month because of the age experience they have in their jobs. i dont know what experience you need for updating passbooks and giving the correct form to consumers.This kind of flawed salary structure exists in the entire Public sector space.

Here is a new example of the same.

VISAKHAPATNAM: There seems to be no early end in sight to the misery of the people in Vizag and the Hudhud-hit coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh as it will take at least another two weeks before power supply is completely restored.

Despite massive repair work undertaken since Monday morning, power could be restored only to about 5,000 of the 22 lakh consumers in Vizag city by Wednesday evening, sending the denizens of the Port City back to the primitive way of life: finishing their daily chores by sunset and getting up at the crack of dawn to start their day.

This is even as reports suggest that the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) will take anywhere between three to six months to restart its operations. The woes of VSP are due to various reasons - not the least because the blast furnaces were operating at full blast when the cyclone hit and cut off electricity. The steel being produced has been now cooling down and will have solidified by the time power is restored on Thursday morning.

Insiders say the steel melting shop will possibly have to be rebuilt because it will be very difficult to take out the cold metal (the solidified steel) out. Insiders blame the steel plant management for this fiasco because they did not anticipate this happening and thus did not shut the plant down before hand.

Incidentally, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL), the corporate entity of VSP, was planning a public issue to divest 10 per cent stake till tragedy struck. In all probability, the public issue will have to be scrapped yet again. 

October 21, 2014

When Rakesh Jhunjhunwala grilled Aurobindo Pharma brass with some hard questions

The Big Bull RJ owns around 1% stake in AUROBINDO PHARMA.Seems he has made his money after doing all the due diligence of the company.This concall transcript is of last year when the company came out with FY 13 Numbers.No wonder that the stock has quadrupled over an year. On his head lies the hand of the Big Bull.

It was a ‘rare’ occasion when Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, partner in asset management firm Rare Enterprise, logged into the fourth-quarter earnings call of Aurobindo Pharma on Friday. The multi-billionaire investor was raring to ask the company’s top management some hard questions and pounced on the opportunity as soon as the operator unmuted his line. Here’s what followed, verbatim:

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ)
: I’d like to know how much is your net foreign currency (dollar) receipts, considering you have a sale of Rs 5,800 crore, of which Rs 5,000 crore is from overseas markets. What are your expenses really like, out of this Rs 5,000 crore?
Robert Cunard (RC), CEO, Aurobindo USA: It may be in the range of $250-300 million...
I mean exports minus imports and other expenditure in the foreign currency for the year as a whole.
RJ: Right. So what is your net foreign exchange receipts?
RC: In the range of $250-275 million, in import expenditure.
RJ: Import expenditure is about $300 million?
RC: No. Net foreign receipts in dollars is in the range of $250-275 million.
RJ: That means your gross receipts is Rs 5,000 crore, which is nearly $900 million, and you are incurring $600 million expenditure outside India?
(Pin-drop silence from the Aurobindo Pharma side for 15 seconds)
Sudhir Singhi (SS), CFO, Aurobindo Pharma: In that number, domestic sales worth Rs 1,493 crore is there as well.
RJ: Foreign sales is Rs 4,500...
SS: Yes, Rs 4,000 crore is exports sales.
RJ: Rs 4,000 crore is export sales, that means about $750 million.
SS: Rs 4,000 crore divided by 55... that is approximately $725 million.
RJ: Then your expenses is about $400 million?
SS: Sir, that includes the import of raw material for API, which could be a considerable number. This could be a couple of hundred million dollars.
RJ: But you are following I’m told... And, what is your debt in foreign exchange?
SS: Our debt in foreign exchange is approximately $600 million.
RJ: So, you don’t have a natural cover on the debt, no?
SS: No no... Sir, what happened, see, we don’t hedge it from the operations. We have a surplus of about $300 million for which we take for trade operations a working capital borrowing in foreign currency, which is approximately $330-340 million. So, as far as operations are concerned, we are fully hedged.
RJ: No no, but your debt is $700 million, no? What is your debt in foreign exchange?
SS: Yes, the remaining debt (term loan) is repayable somewhere in the years 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20, so we are having a natural hedge by growing exports over a period of time.
RJ: Therefore, are you dividing your forex debt into two parts – one which is payable in the near future or is a permanent debt or one which is payable after a certain period of time?
SS: Yes, we are dividing it into two parts. The debt which is falling (due for) maturity over a period of one year is considered to be sort of working capital or including working capital, short-term loan. If you see that portion, which is about $350-375 million including debt repayable within one year, against which we have an extra hedge, net from the trade operations, i.e. exports minus import...
RJ: Yes, I understand that. But then the balance $300 million debt which is payable over the next 4-5 years, how are you accounting for the loss in foreign exchange there? You are passing it through the profit and loss (P&L) account or capitalising it?
SS: No, we are not capitalising it. Whatever the loss is there – quarter end as well as year end – we restate and charge the difference to the P&L account. So this year, you see our loss on account of forex is being accounted in the P&L account.
RJ: That means if the dollar goes up, you are a net loser.
SS: We will be the loser on the restatement of the loss, notionally.
RJ: If you are charging it to the P&L account, that means today dollar has gone up from Rs 54 as of March 31 to Rs 56.5, so to that extent, on your one-year loan, your loss is covered. But for $300 million, you will have to provide it in the balance sheet.
SS: Yes, every one rupee depreciation on the dollar we would be losing on the restatement Rs 30 crore. For instance, from Rs 54 to Rs 56 today, we are losing Rs 2. As on date if we account for it in our P&L account, we will be the loser by Rs 60 crore.
RJ: On the entire debt?
SS: On the entire debt of $700 million.
RJ: You also have a choice wherein you can differentiate a long-term debt as short-term? Why don’t you charge the loss on long-term debt directly to your balance sheet?
SS: Because we have not exercised the option which the government has given – I recollect two years ago – so we decided as per the accounting standards in the
Institute of chartered accountants that we charge it to the P&L account.
RJ: But that’s not a true reflection of your profits, no?
SS: It isn’t, but please understand that we classify the portion of the forex as interest. So, our interest cost on foreign currency is only 3.75% and if you add the rupee depreciation that has happened, 6.7%, the interest cost would have been 9%, which is nothing, but if we could have taken loan in INR (rupee), our cost would be 9-10%.
RJ: What kind of sales growth are you expecting this fiscal?

N Govindarajan (NG), MD, Aurobindo Pharma
: We are clear that it should be over 20%.
RJ: So, that will mean sales of around Rs 7,000 crore.
NG: Yes sir. It will be a little over that number.
RJ: What kind of a margin improvement are you indicating?
NG: We don’t talk about specific numbers, but I’ll put it that we are expecting a minimum improvement of 200-300 basis points in fiscal 2013-14.
RJ: Does cash flow on your budgeted profit allow for any debt repayment?
NG: Yes sir.
RJ: What’s your plan? How much debt do you want to repay?
SS: As we said, we have about $47.5 million loan coming for repayment, which we are confident of repaying in the current year and the rest will continue.
RJ: That means you are repaying $50 million this year?
SS: That’s right sir.
RJ: Ok sir. Thank you.
(Sigh of relief from Aurobindo officials)
The full transcript of the conference call is also available on the Bloomberg terminal.

October 18, 2014


I have always believed that one should be extra careful while purchasing stock based on unknown analyst recommendations.After 4 years Forbes India part of TV18 group now under Reliance industries model portfolio generated just 20% returns thats less then 3.5% CAGR Returns


The 3.5% CAGR comes as a surprise as one sees a list of Multibaggers in the folio .Hcl tech turned out to be a 4 bagger while Glaxo ,maruti suzuki turned out to be 3 and 2 baggers.


Here is a complete list.

This again brings focus to our core belief that one needs to be stock specific to generate alpha in the stock markets

One more thing Forbes India would not like this list to be discussed.Survivorship bias ho....

October 16, 2014


Hdfc securities had recommended Bodal chemical on september 5

In our Stock Note dated June 30, 2014 we had recommended investors to buy Bodal Chemicals Ltd. at the then CMP of Rs. 42.2 and to average it on dips to Rs. 34‐37 for a
price target of Rs. 60 over the next one to two quarters. Thereafter, the stock touched a low of Rs. 41.2 on July 11, 2014 and subsequently met our price target on July 25,
2014. The stock touched a high of Rs. 75 on Aug 06, 2014. Currently, it is quoting at Rs. 52.3. 


Its head of institutional research had also made a BUY call on CNBC TV 18 BAZAAR programme 


In an interesting turn of event a week back HDFC Securities has given an Risk averse investors exit call on Bodal chemicals.


Interestingly the report mentions promoter selling as one of the reasons for giving an exit call.Along with the deterioration of fundamentals due to the fall in H ACID prices.But H acid prices have been falling from august end and the second update report from HDFC should have taken that into account on SEPTEMBER 3RD

Anyone who is into stockmarket should have recalled that way back in 2011.Few foolish people faxed Bse about a fake open offer for BODAL CHEM. Although no promoter involvement was found.Such incident should have clearly made HDFC SEC refrain from giving a BUY recommendation.

Interestingly the promoters of BODAL CHEMICAL Participated in various investor meets with rosy eps projections even while a NRI Promoter was selling his stake.

some notes from the latest report
 Investors who have invested based on our recommendation (average purchase price Rs.47.65) can exit at the CMP to Rs.36.2, if they do not wish to see further price fall.
There is a probability that the share price could fall to Rs.27-28 and then bounce up at the time of Q2FY15 results, but the extent of bounce at that time is uncertain. Long
term investors who are not shaken by short term volatility can buy/add on sharp dips (between Rs.24 to 28) for exiting in sharp bounces later over 3-4 quarters as the
current negatives would have been played out by then.

The stock has been falling sharply post making a high of Rs.62.50. This is probably due to two reasons:
 One of the NRI promoters – Jayanti D Patel has been selling the stock aggressively since Sept 18, 2014 as per the disclosures made to the BSE. This is apparently to
meet his need for funds to be invested abroad. Out of 74.7 lakh shares held by him as on June 30, 2014, he has sold 13.62 lakh shares till Oct 01, 2014 at various
prices. Further his wife also holds 4.17 lakh shares as on Aug 21, 2014. We are not sure as to how many more shares he wants to sell and till what rate. This
selling pressure could vitiate the valuation of Bodal shares in the near term and the share price could go below the fair price.
 The other reason is that the prices of H Acid (prices rose from Rs.350-400 per kg 6-8 quarters back to a peak of Rs.1800 per kg in July/August 2014 and then down
to Rs.500-550 per kg currently, as per the management) and its derivatives have fallen sharply over August /September 2014 as shut capacities in China came
back due to the increase in prices seen till July and demand for dyestuff/dyestuff intermediates fell due to higher prices. Though this was considered by us in our
estimates, the extent of fall in the prices and the suddenness was not expected. This could impact the topline & bottom line of the company in FY15 and beyond.

Open Unbiased

September 26, 2014


Popular Tv analyst S.P Tulsian whose followers claimed he had a fan following equivalent to that of Vijay mallya  in stock market seems to have got his contract axed from TV 18 group post RIL acquisition of the group.
An insider tells me that most of these chaps get an annual renewal contract upward of 8 digits.Seeing that his last interview was on 6th July the insider is quite sure of him being the latest axe in the TV 18 group

Seeing that Mr Tulsian is very active on his paid website which itself is not in compliance to the new SEBI regulations on market analyst i wonder how long will we see the old jack holding up without appearances in any TV Channel.

Will keep you guys posted.

September 18, 2014

Narayan Murthy fund CATARAMAN makes 3.5X in 15 months tax free

16 Sep 2014CATAMARAN CAPITALS509000127.50
21 May 2013CATAMARAN CAPITALP135000037.00

Its much more interesting to see who sold him the stake at 37

21 May 2013HDFC TRUSTEE COMPANY LTDS139620937.00

 at what rate did HDFC MF Buy NRB Bearings wait i will disclose that as well


10 Oct 2007HDFC MUTUAL FUNDP29736292.00

Who is smarter among all of them
Over 5 years HDFC MF looses 50% of its original investment while in 18 months NRN makes 3.5X

People should have followed were his money was working and not where he was working :)

This is not a BUY/SELL recommendation on the stock.Just a view on what is happening in the markets.

August 27, 2014

annual report worth reading -amara raja battery

Disclosure:- I dont own any shares in AMARA RAJA BATTERY but would like to add if there is a substantial dip


Mangt seems reasonably confident even post the upmove.


Compounded Sales Growth

10 Years:
5 Years:
3 Years:

Compounded Profit Growth

10 Years:
5 Years:
3 Years:

Return on Equity

10 Years:
5 Years:
3 Years:
Last year:

A rare conversation between Ramakrishna Paramahansa & Swami Vivekananda

Swami Vivekananda:- I can’t find free time. Life has become hectic.
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Activity gets you busy. But productivity
gets you free.

Swami Vivekananda:- Why has life become complicated now?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Stop analyzing life.. It makes it
complicated. Just live it.

Swami Vivekananda:- Why are we then constantly unhappy?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Worrying has become your habit. That’s why
you are not happy.

Swami Vivekananda:- Why do good people always suffer?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Diamond cannot be polished without friction.
Gold cannot be purified without fire. Good people go through trials,
but don’t suffer. With that experience their life becomes better, not

Swami Vivekananda:- You mean to say such experience is useful?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Yes. In every term, Experience is a hard
teacher. She gives the test first and the lessons afterwards.

Swami Vivekananda:- Because of so many problems, we don’t know where
we are heading…
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- If you look outside you will not know where
you are heading. Look inside. Eyes provide sight. Heart provides the

Swami Vivekananda:- Does failure hurt more than moving in the right direction?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Success is a measure as decided by others.
Satisfaction is a measure as decided by you.

Swami Vivekananda:- In tough times, how do you stay motivated?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Always look at how far you have come rather
than how far you have to go. Always count your blessing, not what you
are missing.

Swami Vivekananda:- What surprises you about people?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- When they suffer they ask, “why me?” When
they prosper, they never ask “Why me?”

Swami Vivekananda:- How can I get the best out of life?
Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- Face your past without regret. Handle your
present with confidence. Prepare for the future without fear.

Swami Vivekananda:- One last question. Sometimes I feel my prayers are
not answered.

Ramakrishna Paramahansa:- There are no unanswered prayers. Keep the
faith and drop the fear. Life is a mystery to solve, not a problem to
resolve. Trust me. Life is wonderful if you know how to live.

July 14, 2014


With talk of poor monsoon i wasn't suprised to see promoter group of kaveri seeds company booking some profits.

Bulk Deals on :
Bulk deals for Kaveri Seed Company on both BSE & NSE for all transactions
Date Company Client Tran Qty Traded Price
09-Jul-2014 Kaveri Seed (NSE) THE GROWTH FUND OF AMERICA BUY 3207813 836.10
09-Jul-2014 Kaveri Seed (NSE) VANAJA DEVI GUNDAVARAM SELL 3162552 836.15
 Stock has since corrected 15% from top

Kaveri has already been a multibagger for its investors rising a 10 fold from 2011 to 2014.

Ashish Kacholia of LUCKY SECURITIES has already made a 10 bagger return from the stock from 2011.

We need to watch now whether the stock has made a top for this year.

attached charts

Disclosure have no positions in kaveri seeds as of now. would like to add post the earnings season.

June 29, 2014

elara on orient cement

In the past few weeks, prices of cement in South India have increased sharply. If prices were to remain high, then South-based firms would see a sharp improvement in earnings. Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN), which is the lowest cost producer in the southern region, is likely to regain its margin leadership in Q2FY15 when it would benefit from the full quarter impact of the recent price hike. Given that the existing plant (which has an inherited cost advantage due to proximity to raw materials sources and the market) is likely to generate a ROCE of 12% even at a replacement cost of INR 6,000/tonne, its valuation should command 1x replacement cost. As AP has sustained high cement prices for the past six months to 2 years, we conclude that these prices could sustain at the current levels for some more time.
Orient is also expanding capacity from 5 mn tonnes to 8 mn tonnes by Q1FY16. The new 3-million-tonne plant is coming upin the oversupply Gulbarga cluster and is likely to have a higher landed cost of fly ash and fuel. To address investor concerns regarding low profitability, we assume the plant will be unable to generate sufficient returns above its WAAC for the next five years. Hence, we assign 1x replacement cost of INR 6,000/tonne over the next five years where this plant’s ROCE would be equal to its WACC and discount the same value of WACC at 12% for the next five years. Based on these assumptions, valuation of new capacity would be at INR 3,405/tonne.
Weighted average targets multiple works out to be at INR 4,937/tonne. The stock is currently trading at an EV/ tonne of INR 3,560/tonne on FY16 capacity
Watch the Diet
After valuing the company at a target multiple of INR 4,937/tonne, fair price under the blue sky scenario would be INR 147, implying upside potential of 58% from the current levels.

June 27, 2014

Nirmal bang on Steel Authority of India-

  Steel Authority of India- Institution Desk Management Meet Update- Likely Improvement Priced-in; Retain Sell: We had a meeting with the management of SAIL recently in order to get an update on its current activities. The company will enjoy the benefit of lower coking coal prices, which will be slightly offset by a minor drop in steel prices. SAIL is hopeful of improvement in demand driven by investment revival, which will help it to sell incremental volume arising out of expansion. The management indicated that there were certain non-recurring expenses in FY14, which led EBITDA to fall to a 10-year low of Rs3,457/tn. The management expects the performance to improve on the back of higher volume and lower coking coal as well as overheads costs. We have not revised our estimates at this point of time, as we have already factored in adequate improvement from FY14 onwards. SAIL currently trades at 12.1x/10.8x FY15E/ FY16E EV/EBITDA, respectively, higher than its past 12 years’ average of 6.3x. We have retained Sell rating with a TP of Rs72, which is 22% below the CMP.



   Attended Analyst Meet of Vaibhav Global. Q1 result will be impacted on account of lower volume and higher carriage cost of channel. volume  is lower on account of company has outsourced Call center during the quarter and transition impacted volume and company inventory level at studio level reduced sharply in Q4. Both the things has corrected and Q2 will show normal growth. Higher carriage cost is for increasing the channel reach which is more of an Investment. We feel lower volume in Q1 will be made up in next 3 qtr and maintain of EPS expectation of Rs.45 for FY15 and Rs.58 for FY16. We recommend to Hold the stock and Buy on decline with Target price of Rs.925.

From NB desk

I personally would avoid the stock

have no holding although the stock has given multifold returns


Sub : Revision in Criteria for Shifting Scrips to/from Trade for Trade Segment

The scrips in Trade for Trade segment are made available for trading under BE or BT series.
The settlement of scrips available in this segment is done on a trade for trade basis and no
netting off is allowed. Currently, the surveillance action whereby scrips are transferred for
trading and settlement on a trade-to-trade basis is reviewed at periodic intervals viz
fortnightly and quarterly. These criteria for shifting scrips to/from Trade for Trade segment
are decided jointly by the stock exchanges in consultation with SEBI and reviewed
With a view to rationalize the criteria of shifting of scrips to/from Trade for Trade Segment
and to bring it in line with the current market dynamics, SEBI and Stock Exchanges after
deliberation and discussions have decided to revise the criteria and periodicity for trade for
trade review. Henceforth ,the process of identifying the scrips for moving to/from Trade to
Trade will be done on a monthly basis (along with the price band review process, which too
shall be done on a Monthly basis instead of Bi-monthly basis), based on the following

 Kindly refer to the circular.

I guess the exchange is going in for high pe stocks.It should also go and hound stocks having negative pe which doesnt find any mention in the notice.

Anyways time will tell whether the circular is progressive or regressive.You be the judge

read the circular here


March 9, 2014

Sign of times: People taking rupee cover :)INR:USD ANALYSIS -WWW.NIFTYVIEWS.COM

Dear friends,
                 Not so long ago INR: USD was about to reach the exotic position of 69.Having avoided that level and with a few bang bang moves by the governor we have retraced back to 61.

Here is an interesting article i came across today


Buyers of Indian assets are becoming nervous due to appreciation of INR:USD

March 4, 2014


Draft- National Biotechnology Development Strategy – 2014 Document for Comments
Department of Biotechnology had brought out a ‘National Biotechnology Development Strategy’ in 2007 which was a guiding framework for the activities and programmes taken up during the Eleventh plan period. The strategy sought to address a number of challenges in terms of R&D; creation of investment capital; technology transfer, absorption and diffusion; intellectual property regime; regulation standards and accreditation; tailor-made human capital for science and innovation and public understanding of biotechnology. DBT has accomplished or initiated actions for most of the targets in the strategy. The implementation of Biotech Strategy 2007 has provided an insight into what works and what does not in the national context.
Consultations for the Biotech Strategy-II were held in May, 2011. Over 200 Experts and Scientists participated in each sectoral area and the recommendations are based on the discussions of the sectoral group. Based on these recommendations, the draft National Biotechnology Development Strategy document was prepared and can be seen at the link below.

The Draft National Biotechnology Development Strategy – 2014 document



It will be a trigger for agro chemical and seeds company do give a read


March 2, 2014

Warren Buffett Annual letter 2013

Dear friends,
                  for any value investor Warren Buffett and berkshire hathway are mecca of investing.When the God speaks everyone hears.

Here is the link to this years Berkshire Hathway,s annual report


do read page 4-24 in this report

Comments invited.

February 24, 2014

Is Nifty heading for a move beyond the trading range.

Going against consensus. 


 Here is a synopsis of reaction of market participants on Nifty- Range bound is i guess the most used for 2014 in Indian context ahead of elections. 

February 22, 2014


Dear friends, Due to the global correlation of the IT stocks and the CNX IT index i have presented herewith an analysis on the probable trade set up for the nasdaq composite index. I have also posted a probable outcome for the cnx it index. FOR ANALYSIS KINDLY SAVE/OPEN THE CHARTS SO THAT THE IMAGE ENLARGES Do note reader discretion is recommended and this article is only for educational purpose.This article is mainly for the Indian audience and is neither targeted or intended for citizens of U.S.A

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