Going against consensus.
Here is a synopsis of reaction of market participants on Nifty- Range bound is i guess the most used for 2014 in Indian context ahead of elections.
- Nifty may trade range-bound between 6020-6130: Magnum Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/brokerage-recos-fundamental/nifty-may-trade-range-bound-between-6020-6130-magnum_1046580.html?utm_source=ref_article
- Nifty to be in 5800-6400 range pre-polls: IL&FS Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/nifty-to-be5800-6400-range-pre-polls-ilfs_1047372.html?utm_source=ref_article
- Rupee to stay stable ahead, Nifty rangebound: HSBC India Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/rupee-to-stay-stable-ahead-nifty-rangebound-hsbc-india_1040276.html?utm_source=ref_article%20
- Don't see major pre-election market moves: Nomura Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/dont-see-major-pre-election-market-moves-nomura_1046213.html?utm_source=ref_article
- Gautam Shah of JM Financial: Nifty ending the ongoing bounce around 6100-6150 is quite high. From this region the bears could make their presence felt and have another go at the 5950-6000 support zone. A close below this opens up another 5 percent on the downside. Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/nifty-may-fall-5-if-it-breaks-5950-jm-financial_1042034.html?utm_source=ref_article
- Nifty to be in 5900-6300 range; like Aurobindo: Amisha Vora Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/nifty-to-be5900-6300-range-like-aurobindo-amisha-vora_1039270.html?utm_source=ref_article
- Sandeep Shenoy of Anand Rathi Financial Services talks about the broader market. He believes Nifty will continue to be rangebound for time being and will see support between 5900 and 6000 on the downside. He also talks about how the Nifty may possibly behave ahead of elections. Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/see-nifty-downside-support-between-5900-6000-anand-rathi_1041364.html?utm_source=ref_article
As usual i couldnt understand what the anand rathi guy meant.But all other analysts have written off a pre election rally. 2 months as they say is a long long time in markets and politics. Market has a strange habit of always going opposite to the consensus thoughtprocess.I rest my case.
views invited in the comments section.
4 comments:
I agree with your views. My personal opinion is that nifty will rally prior to election in anticipation of BJP-NDA led government. We may also have a new high closing around April end.Post April market will go into consolidation mode till election results are announced. We should see 6400-6500 prior to election. The downside is limited to 5960/5880.
Given the FII flows towards end of FEB it seems lower level buying has taken place. IT, Capital and selective pharma and selective bank seems to be good bet.
Post election market will react to the numbers. If BJP ( NDA ) get clear majority then we may have a repeat of May 2009 or a complete reversal of it. In clear majority scenario BJP must win around 190-200 seats. In case of fractured mandate with hung parliament market will crash. In a scenario UPA returning to power with thin majority then also market will crash.
Nifty breakout on upside looks difficult as lot of negative headwinds. So if range breaks it can be on downside. Further global mlts look ripe for correction
Seems U r right. This expiry nifty will go down in preparation to go new high.
Sandy
how almost all the brokerages talk in the same tone i wonder like wise all the top notch economist including dr.rangarajan who is advisor to p.m on economic affairs say now that economy will be good from next year which may coinside with the arrival of a new P.M i donot understand
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