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October 25, 2014

Pitfalls of a tracking portfolio

Mohnish Pabrai is a world renowned Indian investor philanthropist and businessman.He is also known as the person who purchase a 650000 dollar lucnh with his Guru WARREN BUFFETT.

He follow the tracker investment method werein people imitate successful investors and just imitate their holdings to there own portfolios.

Here is more about him


People who have imitated Warren buffett of late have not had the best of there investment career going in for them.here is why.

It's not been a good time for Warren Buffett wannabes.
Sharp drops in many of the stocks owned by Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb.N 139.4 0.72 0.52%) in recent weeks hit the sprawling conglomerate's equity portfolio hard. The loss on seven of those holdings alone totals more than $5 billion US provided Berkshire's stakes have remained the same since June 30, the last date for which they were disclosed.
In particular, Berkshire's been stung by large holdings in IBM and long-time Buffett favorite Coca-Cola (KO.N 41.03 0.17 0.42%), both of which tumbled after disappointing third-quarter results. His penchant for energy stocks hasn't helped either, given the damage done to the prices of energy assets by the slumping global oil price.
For the world's third richest man, unrealized losses of a few billion dollars aren't necessarily anything to cry about.
Buffett's ability to sit tight and ride out short-term market gyrations has been one of the keys to his success as a long-term investor. And unlike, say, mutual fund managers, he doesn't have to worry about redemptions forcing him to sell stock.
But for others - fund managers, smaller institutions, even retail investors - who often try to follow in Buffett's footsteps, the losses could be harder to get over.
Berkshire Hathaway did not respond to requests for comment.
With 400 million shares of Coke on June 30, Berkshire is the company's largest shareholder - and Buffett is perhaps the world's most famous Cherry Coke fan.
"I love Coke, I love the management," he said in a television interview in April, as the company faced a controversy over an executive compensation plan.
Coke shares plunged 6 percent on Oct. 21 after it said that quarterly profit slumped. The shares are down 4.1 percent since June 30 for a possible paper loss to Berkshire of $696 million.
Similarly, IBM - of which Berkshire held about 70 million shares on June 30 - is down about 11 percent since the end of the second quarter, with much of that decline occurring after it ditched its 2015 operating earnings target this week. Since June 30, IBM's slump may has cost Berkshire nearly $1.3 billion on paper.
Short-seller Doug Kass has repeatedly pointed to both of those companies as weak spots in Berkshire's portfolio.
Kass, who runs Seabreeze Partners Management in Palm Beach, Florida, was named Buffett's "credentialed bear" for the 2013 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting. To spice up proceedings at the gathering, which is attended by thousands of Berkshire shareholders, Buffett got Kass to present the bear case against the conglomerate, which owns dozens of businesses selling everything from ice cream to insurance.
"Very few people have the sort of pain threshold and long-term time frame and risk appetite that Warren Buffett has," Kass said. "His risk profile is different than a mere mortal."
Among the other stocks that were in Berkshire's portfolio at June 30 that have dropped significantly are banking group Wells Fargo, credit card group American Express, energy giant Exxon Mobil, Canadian oil producer Suncor Energy and automaker General Motors.
Exxon often sees its fate tied to the price of oil. With crude down about 18 percent so far this year, Buffett's 41 million shares of Exxon at June 30 would be worth almost $311 million less now.
Earlier this month, Berkshire Hathaway said that it had sold off some of its stake in troubled British grocer Tesco, taking it to below 3 percent from around 3.96 percent of Tesco's shares in May.
Those shares are off 45 percent this year in the wake of its worsening performance, exacerbated by an accounting scandal. Buffett himself called that investment a "huge mistake."
Because Berkshire Hathaway owns stock in dozens of companies, several of its holdings are performing better. Retail behemoth Wal-Mart, for example, is up 1.3 percent since the end of the second quarter. And consumer products maker Procter & Gamble is up 7.2 percent from June 30 to Oct. 22.
For all its substantial portfolio holdings, the cornerstone of Berkshire Hathaway's earnings comes from the dozens of businesses it controls, including insurance company Geico and railroad BNSF. Those companies and others helped bring Berkshire's profit last year to a record $19.48 billion.
Nor have investors punished Berkshire Hathaway's own stock for the recent market gyrations. The class A shares of the conglomerate are up 16 percent this year, and up 8.75 percent since the second quarter.
That handily beats the S&P 500's tepid 4.3 percent gain so far this year.
Last year, for the first time since Buffett took control of Berkshire in 1965, the company's five-year gain in book value per share underperformed the S&P 500's five-year rise, including dividends but before tax.
But Buffett has often said that Berkshire Hathaway will do best against the index in lackluster or even down markets. In recent years, stocks have been surging.
And Buffett's preferred holding time of forever is well known, with the so-called Oracle of Omaha an advocate of buy-and-hold strategies for everyone from himself through Mom-and-Pop retail investors.
Indeed, Buffett himself has often praised falling markets as buying opportunities.
"Tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values," he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders this year.
"A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy."


October 23, 2014

Unilever announced its q3 earnings

  • Unilever (NYSE:UL): Q3 Revenue of €12.2B (-2.0% Y/Y).
  • Underlying sales growth +2.1%; Price +1.8%; Volume +0.3%.
  • Shares -1.6% PM.
  • Press Release


Why i dislike Public sector stocks

My dislike for public sector stocks is well known.

I know of bank clerks who make 45000 rs every month because of the age experience they have in their jobs. i dont know what experience you need for updating passbooks and giving the correct form to consumers.This kind of flawed salary structure exists in the entire Public sector space.

Here is a new example of the same.

VISAKHAPATNAM: There seems to be no early end in sight to the misery of the people in Vizag and the Hudhud-hit coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh as it will take at least another two weeks before power supply is completely restored.

Despite massive repair work undertaken since Monday morning, power could be restored only to about 5,000 of the 22 lakh consumers in Vizag city by Wednesday evening, sending the denizens of the Port City back to the primitive way of life: finishing their daily chores by sunset and getting up at the crack of dawn to start their day.

This is even as reports suggest that the Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) will take anywhere between three to six months to restart its operations. The woes of VSP are due to various reasons - not the least because the blast furnaces were operating at full blast when the cyclone hit and cut off electricity. The steel being produced has been now cooling down and will have solidified by the time power is restored on Thursday morning.

Insiders say the steel melting shop will possibly have to be rebuilt because it will be very difficult to take out the cold metal (the solidified steel) out. Insiders blame the steel plant management for this fiasco because they did not anticipate this happening and thus did not shut the plant down before hand.

Incidentally, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited (RINL), the corporate entity of VSP, was planning a public issue to divest 10 per cent stake till tragedy struck. In all probability, the public issue will have to be scrapped yet again. 

October 21, 2014

When Rakesh Jhunjhunwala grilled Aurobindo Pharma brass with some hard questions

The Big Bull RJ owns around 1% stake in AUROBINDO PHARMA.Seems he has made his money after doing all the due diligence of the company.This concall transcript is of last year when the company came out with FY 13 Numbers.No wonder that the stock has quadrupled over an year. On his head lies the hand of the Big Bull.

It was a ‘rare’ occasion when Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, partner in asset management firm Rare Enterprise, logged into the fourth-quarter earnings call of Aurobindo Pharma on Friday. The multi-billionaire investor was raring to ask the company’s top management some hard questions and pounced on the opportunity as soon as the operator unmuted his line. Here’s what followed, verbatim:

Rakesh Jhunjhunwala (RJ)
: I’d like to know how much is your net foreign currency (dollar) receipts, considering you have a sale of Rs 5,800 crore, of which Rs 5,000 crore is from overseas markets. What are your expenses really like, out of this Rs 5,000 crore?
Robert Cunard (RC), CEO, Aurobindo USA: It may be in the range of $250-300 million...
I mean exports minus imports and other expenditure in the foreign currency for the year as a whole.
RJ: Right. So what is your net foreign exchange receipts?
RC: In the range of $250-275 million, in import expenditure.
RJ: Import expenditure is about $300 million?
RC: No. Net foreign receipts in dollars is in the range of $250-275 million.
RJ: That means your gross receipts is Rs 5,000 crore, which is nearly $900 million, and you are incurring $600 million expenditure outside India?
(Pin-drop silence from the Aurobindo Pharma side for 15 seconds)
Sudhir Singhi (SS), CFO, Aurobindo Pharma: In that number, domestic sales worth Rs 1,493 crore is there as well.
RJ: Foreign sales is Rs 4,500...
SS: Yes, Rs 4,000 crore is exports sales.
RJ: Rs 4,000 crore is export sales, that means about $750 million.
SS: Rs 4,000 crore divided by 55... that is approximately $725 million.
RJ: Then your expenses is about $400 million?
SS: Sir, that includes the import of raw material for API, which could be a considerable number. This could be a couple of hundred million dollars.
RJ: But you are following I’m told... And, what is your debt in foreign exchange?
SS: Our debt in foreign exchange is approximately $600 million.
RJ: So, you don’t have a natural cover on the debt, no?
SS: No no... Sir, what happened, see, we don’t hedge it from the operations. We have a surplus of about $300 million for which we take for trade operations a working capital borrowing in foreign currency, which is approximately $330-340 million. So, as far as operations are concerned, we are fully hedged.
RJ: No no, but your debt is $700 million, no? What is your debt in foreign exchange?
SS: Yes, the remaining debt (term loan) is repayable somewhere in the years 16, 17, 18, 19 and 20, so we are having a natural hedge by growing exports over a period of time.
RJ: Therefore, are you dividing your forex debt into two parts – one which is payable in the near future or is a permanent debt or one which is payable after a certain period of time?
SS: Yes, we are dividing it into two parts. The debt which is falling (due for) maturity over a period of one year is considered to be sort of working capital or including working capital, short-term loan. If you see that portion, which is about $350-375 million including debt repayable within one year, against which we have an extra hedge, net from the trade operations, i.e. exports minus import...
RJ: Yes, I understand that. But then the balance $300 million debt which is payable over the next 4-5 years, how are you accounting for the loss in foreign exchange there? You are passing it through the profit and loss (P&L) account or capitalising it?
SS: No, we are not capitalising it. Whatever the loss is there – quarter end as well as year end – we restate and charge the difference to the P&L account. So this year, you see our loss on account of forex is being accounted in the P&L account.
RJ: That means if the dollar goes up, you are a net loser.
SS: We will be the loser on the restatement of the loss, notionally.
RJ: If you are charging it to the P&L account, that means today dollar has gone up from Rs 54 as of March 31 to Rs 56.5, so to that extent, on your one-year loan, your loss is covered. But for $300 million, you will have to provide it in the balance sheet.
SS: Yes, every one rupee depreciation on the dollar we would be losing on the restatement Rs 30 crore. For instance, from Rs 54 to Rs 56 today, we are losing Rs 2. As on date if we account for it in our P&L account, we will be the loser by Rs 60 crore.
RJ: On the entire debt?
SS: On the entire debt of $700 million.
RJ: You also have a choice wherein you can differentiate a long-term debt as short-term? Why don’t you charge the loss on long-term debt directly to your balance sheet?
SS: Because we have not exercised the option which the government has given – I recollect two years ago – so we decided as per the accounting standards in the
Institute of chartered accountants that we charge it to the P&L account.
RJ: But that’s not a true reflection of your profits, no?
SS: It isn’t, but please understand that we classify the portion of the forex as interest. So, our interest cost on foreign currency is only 3.75% and if you add the rupee depreciation that has happened, 6.7%, the interest cost would have been 9%, which is nothing, but if we could have taken loan in INR (rupee), our cost would be 9-10%.
RJ: What kind of sales growth are you expecting this fiscal?

N Govindarajan (NG), MD, Aurobindo Pharma
: We are clear that it should be over 20%.
RJ: So, that will mean sales of around Rs 7,000 crore.
NG: Yes sir. It will be a little over that number.
RJ: What kind of a margin improvement are you indicating?
NG: We don’t talk about specific numbers, but I’ll put it that we are expecting a minimum improvement of 200-300 basis points in fiscal 2013-14.
RJ: Does cash flow on your budgeted profit allow for any debt repayment?
NG: Yes sir.
RJ: What’s your plan? How much debt do you want to repay?
SS: As we said, we have about $47.5 million loan coming for repayment, which we are confident of repaying in the current year and the rest will continue.
RJ: That means you are repaying $50 million this year?
SS: That’s right sir.
RJ: Ok sir. Thank you.
(Sigh of relief from Aurobindo officials)
The full transcript of the conference call is also available on the Bloomberg terminal.

October 18, 2014


I have always believed that one should be extra careful while purchasing stock based on unknown analyst recommendations.After 4 years Forbes India part of TV18 group now under Reliance industries model portfolio generated just 20% returns thats less then 3.5% CAGR Returns


The 3.5% CAGR comes as a surprise as one sees a list of Multibaggers in the folio .Hcl tech turned out to be a 4 bagger while Glaxo ,maruti suzuki turned out to be 3 and 2 baggers.


Here is a complete list.

This again brings focus to our core belief that one needs to be stock specific to generate alpha in the stock markets

One more thing Forbes India would not like this list to be discussed.Survivorship bias ho....

October 16, 2014


Hdfc securities had recommended Bodal chemical on september 5

In our Stock Note dated June 30, 2014 we had recommended investors to buy Bodal Chemicals Ltd. at the then CMP of Rs. 42.2 and to average it on dips to Rs. 34‐37 for a
price target of Rs. 60 over the next one to two quarters. Thereafter, the stock touched a low of Rs. 41.2 on July 11, 2014 and subsequently met our price target on July 25,
2014. The stock touched a high of Rs. 75 on Aug 06, 2014. Currently, it is quoting at Rs. 52.3. 


Its head of institutional research had also made a BUY call on CNBC TV 18 BAZAAR programme 


In an interesting turn of event a week back HDFC Securities has given an Risk averse investors exit call on Bodal chemicals.


Interestingly the report mentions promoter selling as one of the reasons for giving an exit call.Along with the deterioration of fundamentals due to the fall in H ACID prices.But H acid prices have been falling from august end and the second update report from HDFC should have taken that into account on SEPTEMBER 3RD

Anyone who is into stockmarket should have recalled that way back in 2011.Few foolish people faxed Bse about a fake open offer for BODAL CHEM. Although no promoter involvement was found.Such incident should have clearly made HDFC SEC refrain from giving a BUY recommendation.

Interestingly the promoters of BODAL CHEMICAL Participated in various investor meets with rosy eps projections even while a NRI Promoter was selling his stake.

some notes from the latest report
 Investors who have invested based on our recommendation (average purchase price Rs.47.65) can exit at the CMP to Rs.36.2, if they do not wish to see further price fall.
There is a probability that the share price could fall to Rs.27-28 and then bounce up at the time of Q2FY15 results, but the extent of bounce at that time is uncertain. Long
term investors who are not shaken by short term volatility can buy/add on sharp dips (between Rs.24 to 28) for exiting in sharp bounces later over 3-4 quarters as the
current negatives would have been played out by then.

The stock has been falling sharply post making a high of Rs.62.50. This is probably due to two reasons:
 One of the NRI promoters – Jayanti D Patel has been selling the stock aggressively since Sept 18, 2014 as per the disclosures made to the BSE. This is apparently to
meet his need for funds to be invested abroad. Out of 74.7 lakh shares held by him as on June 30, 2014, he has sold 13.62 lakh shares till Oct 01, 2014 at various
prices. Further his wife also holds 4.17 lakh shares as on Aug 21, 2014. We are not sure as to how many more shares he wants to sell and till what rate. This
selling pressure could vitiate the valuation of Bodal shares in the near term and the share price could go below the fair price.
 The other reason is that the prices of H Acid (prices rose from Rs.350-400 per kg 6-8 quarters back to a peak of Rs.1800 per kg in July/August 2014 and then down
to Rs.500-550 per kg currently, as per the management) and its derivatives have fallen sharply over August /September 2014 as shut capacities in China came
back due to the increase in prices seen till July and demand for dyestuff/dyestuff intermediates fell due to higher prices. Though this was considered by us in our
estimates, the extent of fall in the prices and the suddenness was not expected. This could impact the topline & bottom line of the company in FY15 and beyond.

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