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March 31, 2015

Tiger global makes multi bagger return in part exit of stake in Just dial.Goldman sachs logs in.

Tiger global makes multi bagger return in part exit of stake in Just dial.Goldman sachs logs in.

30-Mar-15 JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd. GOLDMAN SACHS SINGAPORE PTE BUY 500000 1252

30-Mar-15 JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd. TIGER GLOBAL FOUR JD HOLDINGS SELL 1481475 1252.3     

March 30, 2015

Prof Sanjay Bakshi posts on when to Buy and when to Hold..


 Before I share Prof. Bakshi’s thoughts on valuations, here is what he has to say on the Value Investing Almanack newsletter…
This is probably the first investment publication in India which needs special software to open and read. There is a cost involved too and not just financial. But then, as Mr. Buffett likes to say “price is what you pay, value is what you get.”
As a paid subscriber to Safal Niveshak’s Value investing Almanack, I fully expect to derive value far in excess of price paid. I recommend you to subscribe too.
~ Prof. Sanjay Bakshi

Quite a strong endorsement of Vishals product by the Professor himself


March 26, 2015

Axiscades another day block deal continues.Promoter owned jupiter capital sells to a clutch of investor including Ashish Kacholia and Alchemy capital

25/03/2015532395AXISCADESJAIDEEP SAMPATS1,501259.3
25/03/2015532395AXISCADESJAIDEEP SAMPATB147,862229.76
25/03/2015532395AXISCADESRBA FINANCE & INVESTMENT CO.B375,000225

March 25, 2015

Axiscades engineering technology limited.Alchemy india buys stake from promoter group through bse trades


Broker updates

Securities in Ban For Trade Date 25-MAR-2015:         
1          UNITECH

Broker's Corner

Motilal Oswal Initiates DCB ; TP 155 ; cmp 106

Sharekhan : Torrent Pharmaceuticals PT revised up to Rs1,500; upgraded to Buy

BofA ML On Godrej Cons: Reiterate Buy Rating, Target Price At Rs 1,290/Sh

Credit Suisse On HDFC Bank: Bank Remains One Of Best Plays On Strong Consumer Credit Cycle

MS on Jubilant Food : Raises target to 1,310 from 1,220; Maintains Underweight

CS on Emami : Maintains Outperform; target of 1,110

CLSA on Oil India : Maintains Buy; target  of 700

HSBC on Rallis : Cuts target to 172  from 193

Market Buzz

Ipca Labs: Receives US FDA Import Alert For Pithampur & Silvasa Units

I-T officials to proceed with MAT Levy on FPIs

Outsourcing price war: Infy, Wipro under pressure to drop prices to retain clients

Ultratech plans share swap to takeover Century's cement arm

Govt allots 38 coal mines to central, state PSU firms

CLSA flags risk of near-term pullback in Indian markets

Haryana govt to probe scrapped Reliance SEZ in Gurgaon, Jhajjar

Holidays, year end at Dalal Street: Brokers ask clients to maintain a 'clear balance'

Ordinance to lapse on April 5, govt mulls land bill options

RBI rejects Tata offer to buy DoCoMo stake in Tata Teleservices

With losses mounting amid dipping sugar prices, sugarcane dues owed by mills to farmers has doubled in the last three years.

NTPC bagged five mines including Chhatti Bariatu, Chatti Bariatu (South), Kerandari, Talaipalli and Dulanga.

GMR Infra Says: Arm GMR Airports In Agmt To Acquire 10% Stake In DIAL Fm Malaysia Airports

Essar Oil pitching to OSO Rosneft for deeper equity alliance

Five aircraft leasing companies based in Ireland take SpiceJet to court

Sun gets RBI nod for transfer of Ranbaxy investments abroad

Glenmark moves SC on diabetes drug issue, hearing today

RBI: NRIs can now buy up to 24% stake in Deccan Gold Mines.

Capital First raises Rs. 300 Cr via QIP issue at Rs. 390/Share.

Central Bank: Govt stake rises to 81.5% from 79.6%.

DYK: Difference between CRR and SLR

March 20, 2015

Balkrishna Industries:- Akash Prakash Amansa capital checks in with block deals

In Nse

  Balkrishna Ind. Ltd AMANSA INVESTMENTS LTD BUY 850000 617.99



March 19, 2015

Advance tax payout by indian companies



Earlier we used to have many websites which used to post live webcast of world cup matches
Nowadays we have to be happy with

audio telecast unless someone has subscribed with star sports


March 16, 2015

Rohit chauhan classifies moat based investing

It is all about durability

The easiest way to justify a high PE stock is to say that it has a moat or in other words a sustainable competitive advantage. Once these magic words are uttered, no further analysis or thinking is needed. If there is a moat, it does not matter if the stock sells at a PE of 30 or 70. It is all the same.

On seeing this type of analysis I am reminded of the following the quote from warren buffett
“What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end.”
Moat =high PE, but high PE is not always = Moat

A company with a moat may be justified to have a high PE, but a high PE does not mean the mean presence of a moat.

Even if the company supposedly has a moat, it is important to judge the depth and durability of this moat. In addition , the company should also have the opportunity to re-invest future cash flows into the business at high rates of return to create further value.

Lets explore some of these aspects in further detail

More than knee deep

The depth of the moat is simply the excess returns a company can make over its cost of capital. If a company can earn 30% return on capital, we can clearly see that the moat is deep (18% excess return).

This aspect of the moat is the easiest to figure out – Just pick the financials of the company for the last 10 years and check the return on capital of the company. If the average returns are higher than the cost of capital , then we can safely assume that the company had a moat in the past (the future is a different issue).

I personally use 15% return on capital as a threshold. Any company which has earned 15% or higher over an entire business cycle (roughly 3-5 years) is a good candidate for the presence of a moat in the past. Its important not to consider a single year in the analysis as several cyclical companies show a sudden spurt in profitability, before sliding into mediocrity.

The durability factor

The presence of a moat in the past, is only the starting point of analysis. 

The key questions to ask are
-          Is the moat durable -  will the moat survive in the future ?
-          How long will the moat survive ?
-          Will the moat deepen (Return on capital improve), remain same or reduce.

All these factor are very important in the valuation of a business.  Let try to quantify them. I will be using the discounted flow analysis (without doing the math here) and will also be making some simplifying assumptions
  1. EPS = 10 Rs
  2. Return on capital (ROC) = 22%
  3. Growth in profits = 15 %
  4. Company is able to maintain this return on capital and growth for 10 years. After that the ROC drops to 12% and growth to 8% (leading to a terminal PE of around 12)
If you input the above numbers into a DCF model, the fair value comes to around 230 (PE = 23) 
Lets play with these numbers now – Lets assume we underestimated the durability of the moat. The actual life of the moat turns out to be 20 years and not the 10 years when we first analysed the company. If that is the case, the fair value comes to around 430 (PE=43)
I just described the case of several companies such as HDFC bank, Asian paints, Nestle etc. In case of these companies, the markets assumed a certain excess return period, which turned to be too conservative. Anyone who bought the stock at a high looking PE, was actually buying the stock cheap.

The above point has been explained far better by prof. sanjay bakshi in this lecture.
Lets look at a few more happy cases. Lets assume that the company actually ends up earning an ROC of 50% with a growth of 20%. If you plug in these numbers, the fair value  turns out to be around 440 (PE=44). I may have just described what has happened to page industries since 2008.

 So what are the key points?

The market  when valuing a company is making an implicit assumption on the future return on capital, growth and the period for which both these factors will last (after which they regress to the averages).  
To read the full article please visit 

March 14, 2015

Jeypore Sugar Empee Sugar Andhra bank loan default

Investment Quotes from Legends

It is important to periodically revisit the  lessons of investing from the great investors – past as well as present. Warren Buffet recently wrote a letter to shareholders celebrating the 50th anniversary of Berkshire Hathaway, which has some real gems when it comes to investing principles. Tren Griffin, a technology, policy  and strategy partner at  Microsoft, writes a very interesting blog ( 25iq.com ) where he covers a dozen things he has learned from a  broad variety of  greater investors (including Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Howard Marks, Seth Klarman and  Ray Dalio), business leaders, entrepreneurs and venture capitalists which usually contain some very valuable insights. To summarise the dozen things he has learnt from Warren Buffet’s letter:

1. “We are limited, of course, to businesses whose economic prospects we can evaluate. And that’s a serious limitation: Charlie and I have no idea what a great many companies will look like ten years from now.” “My experience in business helps me as an investor and that my investment experience has made me a better businessman. Each pursuit teaches lessons that are applicable to the other. And some truths can only be fully learned through experience.”

-Treat an investment security as a proportional ownership of a business.  A security is not just a piece of paper. Not all businesses can be reasonably valued. That’s OK. Put them in the “too hard pile” and move on.

2. “Periodically, financial markets will become divorced from reality.”
“For those investors who plan to sell within a year or two after their purchase, I can offer no assurances, whatever the entry price. Movements of the general stock market during such abbreviated periods will likely be far more important in determining your results than the concomitant change in the intrinsic value of your Berkshire shares. As Ben Graham said many decades ago: ‘In the short-term the market is a voting machine; in the long-run it acts as a weighing machine.’ Occasionally, the voting decisions of investors – amateurs and professionals alike – border on lunacy.”

-Make bi-polar Mr. Market your servant rather than your master by  trading with him only when it serves your interests!The best advice is simple: “be greedy when others are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy.”

3. “A business with terrific economics can be a bad investment if it is bought for too high a price. In other words, a sound investment can morph into a rash speculation if it is bought at an elevated price. Berkshire is not exempt from this.”

-Buy at a bargain price which provides a margin of safety- i.e.  when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to cushion against mistakes, stupidity or just bad luck.

4. “As Tom Watson, Sr. of IBM said, ‘I’m no genius, but I’m smart in spots and I stay around those spots.'”

-Know your circle of competence and stay within it-  risk comes from not knowing what you are doing. There are a number of behavioural biases that contribution to this problem including overconfidence bias, over optimism bias, hindsight bias and the illusion of control.

 5. “Decades ago, Ben Graham pinpointed the blame for investment failure, using a quote from Shakespeare: ‘The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves.'”

-Most investing mistakes are psychological.  Investing is simple, but not easy. Buffett has a great system, but his emotional and psychological temperament is especially suitable for investing. Like Charlie Munger, he is highly rational as human beings go. Everyone, including Buffett, makes mistakes. You can do very well in investing by just avoiding stupid mistakes.

6. “It is entirely predictable that people will occasionally panic, but not at all predictable when this will happen. Though practically all days are relatively uneventful, tomorrow is always uncertain. And if you can’t predict what tomorrow will bring, you must be prepared for whatever it does. Investors, of course, can, by their own behaviour, make stock ownership highly risky. And many do. Active trading, attempts to “time” market movements, inadequate diversification, the payment of high and unnecessary fees to managers and advisors, and the use of borrowed money can destroy the decent returns that a life-long owner of equities would otherwise enjoy. Indeed, borrowed money has no place in the investor’s tool kit: Anything can happen anytime in markets. And no advisor, economist, or TV commentator – and definitely not Charlie nor I – can tell you when chaos will occur. Market forecasters will fill your ear but will never fill your wallet.”

-Buy at a bargain, avoid forecasting  and wait!  You can determine that buying an investment now is a bargain that creates a margin of safety based on a valuation process, but you cannot predict when the price will rise.  So you wait.

7. “Gains won’t come in a smooth or uninterrupted manner; they never have.”

-Investing results will always be lumpy.

8.”Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions. That lesson has not customarily been taught in business schools, where volatility is almost universally used as a proxy for risk. Though this pedagogic assumption makes for easy teaching, it is dead wrong: Volatility is far from synonymous with risk. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.”

“It is true, of course, that owning equities for a day or a week or a year is far riskier (in both nominal and purchasing-power terms) than leaving funds in cash-equivalents. That is relevant to certain investors – say, investment banks – whose viability can be threatened by declines in asset prices and which might be forced to sell securities during depressed markets. Additionally, any party that might have meaningful near-term needs for funds should keep appropriate sums in Treasuries or insured bank deposits.”

-Risk is not the same as volatility. It is “volatility” after all which enables an investor to benefit from Mr. Market’s bi-polar behaviour (i.e., volatility is actually the source of a value investor’s opportunity). For the best essay on the proper definition of risk read Warren Buffett’s 1993 Berkshire Shareholder’s letter.

9. “For the great majority of investors, however, who can – and should – invest with a multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their investing lifetime. For them, a diversified equity portfolio, bought over time, will prove far less risky….”.

-Most investors should buy a diversified portfolio of low fee index funds/ETFs.  As Yale’s David Swensen says: “Asset allocation is the tool that you use to determine the risk and return characteristics of your portfolio. It’s overwhelmingly important in terms of the results you achieve. In fact, studies show that asset allocation is responsible for more than 100 percent of the positive returns generated by investors.”

10. “Huge institutional investors, viewed as a group, have long underperformed the unsophisticated index-fund investor who simply sits tight for decades. A major reason has been fees: Many institutions pay substantial sums to consultants who, in turn, recommend high-fee managers. And that is a fool’s game.”

-Follow the “cost matters hypothesis” as described by John Bogle: “In many areas of the market, there will be a loser for every winner so, on average, investors will get the return of that market less fees.”  Mr. Market is both a benchmark and your competition. You need to beat him after fees and costs. Few can beat him and so most should be him.

 11. “Cash, though, is to a business as oxygen is to an individual: never thought about when it is present, the only thing in mind when it is absent.” “When bills come due, only cash is legal tender. Don’t leave home without it.”

-The only unforgivable sin in business is to run out of cash. The need for some cash as dry powder applies to everyone, the only question is how much cash to have on hand.

12. “We will never play financial Russian roulette with the funds you’ve entrusted to us, even if the metaphorical gun has 100 chambers and only one bullet. In our view, it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing what you simply desire.”

-Black Swans can appear any time. People will try to get you to buy things by hiding this risk.

-Brilliant insights into the investment process from one of the all-time  investment greats and should be the basis  of  one’s toolkit for investing. My personal four key principles form a subset of the above:

-Diversify. You do not know what tomorrow may bring so diversify to mitigate risk.
-Be a Contrarian. By investing when other are fearful and being fearful when others are being greedy allows one to build a margin of safety and take advantage of the bi-polar Mr. Market.
-Be Patient. Allow time to work to your advantage. As Jason Zweig notes: “Regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics: Periods of above-average performance are inevitably followed by below-average returns, and bad times inevitably set the stage for surprisingly good performance.” 
-Do not  Leverage: As noted by Jeremy Grantham - It can remove the one advantage the individual investor has over the professionals – patience!  As Howard Marks also notes: “Leverage magnifies outcomes, but doesn’t add value.” 

-As Gavyn Davies  observes in his FT blog:  after a  negative January, February was another very strong month for global equities, with the US market posting its best monthly return since October 2011. Global equities are now up by 5.1 per cent this year, exceeding the  pace of the ‘12-14 advance.  However, there was a significant rotation in terms of performance, with  Europe (+ 14.7%) outperforming the US (+2.2%) – see chart below.  This has been in the aftermath of  the U.S. stock market tripling since 2009, driven by a moderate but continuous recovery in GDP and corporate earnings and (most importantly)  the QE policy by the Fed. However, earnings are now being negatively impacted (with downward revisions exceeding upwards revisions by 33%) by a strong dollar and the collapse in oil prices, and with the Fed likely to raise interest rates this year, the U.S. will probably  underperform Europe and Japan which  have supportive central bank policies in the form of QE.

As the second chart below illustrates, the recovery of global markets from the March 9, 2009 low (for the U.S) continues with India, U.S.,  Japan and Germany (in that order) posting the most spectacular gains. The Shanghai index, with its 52% rally last year, seems to have finally broken out of its trading range over the last 3 years. The buy on sharp market corrections and  reduce on significant rallies approach still holds.


Click to View

March 12, 2015

The Kenneth Andrade interview

Kenneth andrade sells 1% stake in AMBIKA COTTON

In a previous post i had mentioned how our professor sahab has tanked up his holding in ambika cotton by buying 40000 shares.
The above disclosure shows that Idfc equity opportunity fund has sold 1% stake over last few days.
lets see who has the last laugh the moat or the sellers vote

Mawana Sugars closes down all its Uttar pradesh plants

Atlast bankruptcy catches up with Uttar Pradesh mills


Any takers for the mills

Strategy: Demergers and alpha generation


Strategy: Demergers and alpha generation
History shows that demergers and spin-offs in India have huge upside potential provided they are not misused by promoters to sort out family and balance sheet issues. Investors play the demerger theme before, rather than after, corporate actions. Backed by sound business reasoning, demergers and spin-offs can generate significant alpha. Recent press reports also suggest that Nifty giants, L&T and ITC, could be restructured. In this thematic, we provide a framework to assess demergers and detail compelling case studies – SBI, HDFC, ICICI, Tata Global Beverages, Sadbhav, Ashoka Buildcon and Bajaj Electricals – that offer opportunities for serious value creation. 

Deepak Shenoy at Capital Mind has done a nice review of the Adlabs Imagica IPO

Deepak Shenoy at Capital Mind has done a nice review of the Adlabs Imagica IPO
But I found his disclaimer even better than the review:
Very important note: Look, we’re in a bull market. Any share can go up. In 2006, We didn’t like the GMR IPO issue. It went from 250 to 800. We looked like fools. Then after a 10:1 split the price is now less than Rs. 18 (which would be Rs. 180 for the 2006 IPO holders). That makes us look better. But remember, the price went 4x before it fell – anything can happen, don’t just trust us. We have effectively ditched a potential 4x return earlier. That’s our disclaimer.

March 11, 2015

Professor Sanjay bakshi checks into Ambika cotton mills

Our very own professor sahab sanjay bakshi has checked into Ambika cotton mills.His fund bought 40000 shares yesterday of the stock.

Here is an interesting article on the company by 

Dr Vijay Mallik


March 5, 2015

Ten Techniques for Building Quick Rapport With Anyone

Ten Techniques for Building Quick Rapport With Anyone

ten techniques for building quick rapport
**Warning – the content in this post is so effective that I encourage you to think carefully how it is used. I do not endorse or condone the use of these skills in malicious or deceptive ways**
I’m not quite sure how I came across Robin Dreeke’s It’s Not All About Me: Ten Techniques for Building Quick Rapport With Anyone but I’m glad I did.
Robin is the lead instructor at the FBI’s Counterintelligence Training Center in all behavioral and interpersonal skills training.
And he wrote an awesome book on how to master the skills of communication.
His process not only includes research into social and evolutionary psychology, but it’s been honed from years of field experience.
I’ve been trying these out over the last few days and I’ve already noticed an improvement. Most importantly, I’ve put away my phone and focused on the person with whom I’m talking. This simple act of giving people my undivided attention has made a world of difference.
There are not many places that teach these techniques and I couldn’t have asked for a better guide than Robin.

1. Establishing Artificial Time Constraints

I suspect you’ve sat in a bar at one point or another and been approached by a stranger who tried to start a conversation. My guess is you felt awkward or possibly even uncomfortable. This is because you didn’t know when or if the conversation would end.
The first step in the process of developing great rapport and having great conversations is letting the other person know that there is an end in sight, and it is really close.
When you approach someone to start a conversation most people assess the situation for threat before anything else.
Humans have genetically survived because of this. This is a strong reason why these techniques work; they are specifically designed to lower the perceived risk to a stranger.

2. Accommodating Nonverbals

This is a pretty simple one. You want to look non threatening. The number one nonverbal technique to use to look more accommodating is to smile.
This isn’t new. It’s the second of six principles in Dale Carnegie’s book, How to Win Friends and Influence People.
You can however accentuate your smile in a subtle way.
Adding a slight head tilt shows the other person that you have comfort with them and trust them. Another nonverbal to try and maintain is a slightly lower chin angle.
High chin angles make someone feel like you’re looking down at them.
Another key nonverbal is body angle. Standing toe to toe with someone else can be intimidating.
A slight body angle or blade away from the individual you are engaging will present a much more accommodating nonverbal.
How you shake hands matters too.
An accommodating handshake is one that matches the strength of the other, and also takes more of a palm up angle.

3. Slower Rate of Speech

Speaking fast may mean you’re excited. It may even mean that you know what you’re talking about. However speaking slowly gives you more credibility.
Whenever I have a conversation that I believe is important for me to be credible in my content, I purposely slow down the delivery and take pauses for people to absorb the content of what I have just said.

4. Sympathy or Assistance Theme

If you’re like most people, you’ve felt a bit of regret for turning down someone seeking help.
Think for a moment about the times in your life when you have either sought assistance or been asked to provide it. When the request is simple, of limited duration, and non-threatening, we are more inclined to accommodate the request. As human beings, we are biologically conditioned to accommodate requests for assistance. The compulsion is based upon the fact that our ancient ancestors knew that if they did not provide assistance when asked, the assistance would not be granted to them if requested at a later date.

5. Ego Suspension

This may be the most rewarding and most difficult of all of Robin’s techniques.
Suspending your ego is nothing more complex than putting other individuals’ wants, needs, and perceptions of reality ahead of your own. Most times, when two individuals engage in a conversation, each patiently waits for the other person to be done with whatever story he or she is telling. Then, the other person tells his or her own story, usually on a related topic and often times in an attempt to have a better and more interesting story. Individuals practicing good ego suspension would continue to encourage the other individual to talk about his or her story, neglecting their own need to share what they think is a great story.

6. Validate Others

There are many types of validation. Robin identifies three of them.
This is the simplest and one of the most effective. Just listen to someone can produce amazing results. Where we run into problems is keeping our own thoughts, ideas, and stories out of the conversation.
True validation coupled with ego suspension means that you have no story to offer, that you are there simply to hear theirs.
And there is another benefit. When the focus is on the other person and we’re not anxious to tell our own story, we also tend to remember the details. We’re mindful.
… few people naturally use this to its fullest potential, and, most of the time, we don’t realize when it is being used; all we know is we really like the person who gives it.
Demonstrating thoughtfulness in words and actions with everyone in our lives is a simple and effective way to improve our relationships.
Validate Thoughts and Opinions
This technique is quite difficult because of “our innate need to correct others and the difficulty we have suppressing our own egos.”
But if you remember that we like people who are like us, you’ll immediately grasp the power of validating thoughts and opinions of others.
The best way to get someone to do what you want them to do is to have them come up with the idea. The best way to have them come up with your idea is, no surprise, to honestly understand the other person’s point of view and then build upon that base with your ideas.

7. Ask … How? When? Why?

It’s hard to answer these questions with a simple yes or no.
Once the individual being targeted in the conversation supplies more words and thoughts, a great conversationalist will utilize the content given and continue to ask open ended questions about the same content. The entire time, the individual being targeted is the one supplying the content of the conversation.
This means suppressing your ego and listening to what people are saying. You’re not thinking about what you’re going to say next. You’re not thinking about how the person is wrong. If you’re really listening then asking open ended questions based on the content of what they are saying should be pretty easy.

8. Connect with Quid Pro Quo

In the context of a conversation this means giving up a little information about yourself in order to further the conversation and get a little from others.
In my experiences, there are really only two types of situations where I have utilized quid pro quo. The first and more common of the instances is when you attempt to converse with someone who is either very introverted, guarded, or both. The second instance is when the person you are conversing with suddenly becomes very aware about how much they have been speaking, and they suddenly feel awkward. In both instances, giving a little information about you will help alleviate some of the issues.

9. Gift Giving

This is conversational reciprocation in action.
Great rapport builders and conversationalists use this desire proactively during every conversation. This technique, coupled with ego suspension, are the cornerstones for building great relationships. This is also the easiest technique to utilize, because gifts come in many forms, from non-material compliments, to tangible material gifts. Gift giving, or reciprocal altruism, is hardwired in our genetics.
The key is to do this without an agenda. If you have an agenda you’ll come across as insincere.

10. Manage Expectations

Regardless of the situation, whether it is an altruistic intention or not, there is an agenda. The individuals in life that are able to either mask their agenda or shift the agenda to something altruistic will have great success at building rapport.
The surest way to avoid disappointment is to lower expectations.
If you’re looking to improve the connections you have with others, give it a read.

Taken from

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