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April 27, 2015

Infosys, Ultratech Cement & Petronet LNG

Infosys Ltd (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate
CMP Rs1,996, Target Rs2,125, Upside 6.5%
  • Muted volume growth at 0.9% qoq; pricing pressure continues
  • FY16 annual revenue growth guidance implies much better run-rate than FY15
  • EBIT margin contracted more than expected but remained within the long term band
  • Cut FY16/17 earnings estimates by 6-7%; lower rating to Accumulate
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Ultratech Cement Ltd (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate
CMP Rs2,707, Target Rs2,886, Upside 6.6%
  • Top-line at Rs. 6,135cr disappoints on lower than expected dispatches.
  • Operational efficiency was higher than our estimate on account of saving arising from lower RM and other overhead.
  • Higher interest outgo (up 103% yoy) drags PBIT; marginally higher than our estimate.
  • Effective tax rate stood at 33.5% (as against 14.2% in Q4 FY14) translating into PAT de-growth of 26.6% yoy.
  • Upgrade Ultratech to Accumulate as we now factor in FY17 earnings
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Petronet LNG (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate
CMP Rs167, Target Rs182, Upside 9.0%
  • Net sales at Rs. 716cr was sharply lower than our and street estimates; represented a fall of 31.3% yoy and 2% qoq
  • Total volumes were at 102.5 TBTUs as compared to 117.3 TBTUs in Q4 FY14 and 139.6 TBTUs in Q3 FY15; fall was mainly on account of fall in offtake of long term volumes
  • OPM at 3.1% was below our expectations
  • PAT at Rs. 301cr was higher than our estimates as one time tax reversal pertaining to 80IA of Income Tax Act, 1961 more than offsets poor operational performance
  • While Kochi ramp up continues to be a concern recent developments such as stakeholders meeting by state government, leasing out of storage tanks and trucking of gas have been positive
  • We maintain our Accumulate rating but lower our 12 month target price to Rs. 182 as clarity should emerge on Kochi terminal in medium term and current soft LNG prices should ensure robust demand for LNG
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Warm Regards,
Amar Ambani
Head of Research, IIFL

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