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May 12, 2015

Q4 FY15 Updates - Eicher Motors, Talwalkars, Titan, Orient Cement & Call Update - Essel Propack

Eicher Motors (Q1 CY15) – BUY
CMP Rs15,789, Target Rs18,500, Upside 17.2%
  • Consolidated performance in line with expectations as better than expected standalone performance was offset by weaker than estimated VECV performance
  • Royal Enfield reported highest ever OPM of 26.1%, a surge of 305bps yoy and 253bps qoq driven by significant benefits of operating leverage
  • VECV performance was below estimates as in spite of sequential volume growth margins were down and were below estimates
  • We maintain our rating to BUY with a revised price target of Rs18,500 as we believe the company deserves premium multiples given strong earnings growth forecast in both its two wheeler business and the commercial vehicle business
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness (Q4 FY15) – BUY
CMP Rs334, Target Rs450, Upside 34.7%
  • Robust Q4 with 16.6% revenue, ~800bps margin expansion and 15.7% yoy rise in PAT
  • Same store growth in the range of 9-10% yoy; company looks to further increase share of value added services in overall revenues
  • Solid execution and robust demand outlook support our BUY reco
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Titan Company Ltd (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate
CMP Rs354, Target Rs404, Upside 14.4%
  • Disappointing performance with Q4FY15 net sales down 11% yoy as demand remained weak.
  • FY15 net sales at Rs 11913.4 crs were 5% below our expectations, registering a moderate growth of 9% yoy.
  • Q4FY15 operating profit declined ~9% yoy with mere 24 bps improvement in margins.
  • Lower tax rate due to tax benefit at Pantnagar unit helps post marginal increase in PAT.
  • New golden harvest scheme still to see significant pickup.
  • Reduce 12-month target price to Rs404. Retain Accumulate.
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Orient Cement Ltd (Q4 FY15) – BUY
CMP Rs175, Target Rs219, Upside 25.1%
  • OCL revenues stood at Rs. 394cr (down 1.8%yoy) as volume growth nosedive 18% yoy basis
  • Blended realisations improved 16.6%yoy; in-line with estimates
  • OPM stood at 25.3%; better than estimate on lower RM and freight cost
  • PAT stood at Rs. 85cr (our estimate of Rs. 70cr) as tax outflow was lower on account of investment allowance being claimed under sec. 32 AC
  • Trades at US$96 EV/ton; Maintain BUY
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

Essel Propack - [Call Success & Update]
Reco price Rs111, Previous target price Rs144, New target price Rs161
We had recommended a BUY call on Essel Propack in our strategy report Diwali Dhamaka released on October 22, 2014 with a price target of Rs144. The stock achieved our target in today's trading session thereby delivering ~30% returns from our recommended price of Rs111. We remain positive on the growth prospects of the company and advise investors to continue to hold the investment for a revised one year price target of Rs161.
Click here for the detailed report on the same.

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